For the last trading day, the currency pair Pound / Dollar showed a low volatility of 91 points, as a result of rolling back quotes to the limits of the recent stagnation. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that after the descent to the value of 1.3050, the quotation felt under a periodic pivot point, turning the price around and returning us to the limits of the recent stagnation. The information and news background had a rather large array in itself, we will begin with the key news, the Federal Reserve System meeting. Here, we have an unexpected surprise from Jerome Powell. Previously, we talked about a twofold increase in the interest rate in 2019, now in its context, these words disappeared, adding that, if necessary, the Fed can mitigate the parameters of monetary policy by reducing the monthly asset repurchase. Naturally, the news shocked the markets and the euro literally soared by more than 80 points, and the pound sluggishly, but surely took the same position. So why the pound did not show super volatility? There is already another news - Prime Minister Theresa May was sent to Brussels to solve the impossible tasks under the agreement, but the head of the European Council, Donald Tusk, has already managed to declare that "the agreement on withdrawal is not subject to revision. On February 29, we learned what the United Kingdom does not want. But we still do not know what the United Kingdom wants." Thus, this news has kept the strengthening of the pound.
From the current news calendar, we have data on Europe's GDP, but also from the United States statistics on sales of new housing, where there is growth: Prev. 544K ---> Forecast 560K.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see how the quote has returned to the frame of 1.3150 / 1.3200, the same range that previously held the quote. Probably assume a temporary fluctuation within this framework, where traders are still waiting for a rollback, but it is more optimal to consider a stretch of pending orders.
Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:
- Consider buying positions in case of price fixing higher than 1.3220.
- We consider selling positions in the case of price fixing lower than 1.3100.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that in the short, intraday and and medium term perspectives, that there is an upward interest against the general background.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(January 31 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 51 points. It is likely to assume that in the case of a loop on the 1.3150 / 1.3200 range, the volatility will remain within the framework of the average daily volatility.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1,3200 *; 1.3300; 1.3440 **; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2830 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
