Australian and New Zealand dollars will be more sustainable in the coming months as the US Fed signals a more cautious policy, although growth will be limited by uncertainty about the global economy. The Reuters survey, which was attended by 46 analysts, showed that the average forecast for the Australian for the next three months remains at $ 0.72, the forecast for six months was slightly raised to $ 0.73.
The survey is conducted against the background of renewed downward pressure on the Australian currency, which lost almost 10 percent in 2018, and reached a week low on Wednesday when the country's central bank chose a neutral position. Weak economic data has led investors to expect a rate cut by almost 60 percent by the end of the year. By mid-2020, a 25 basis point decrease is expected, which is a significant change from what was done just a couple of months ago, when investors were ready for a rate hike. But even reducing the rate by 50 basis points is unlikely to lead to the fall of the Australian dollar below $ 0.70, given the recent rise in prices for iron ore, base metals, oil, and gold. The AUD / USD pair will trade for a long time in the range of 0.70–0.75, the dollar.
