4-hour timeframe
The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 96p - 78p - 54p - 37p - 40p.
Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 61p (61p).
The European currency paired with the US currency continues its downward movement with low volatility. Over the past two days, this figure did not exceed the value of 40 points. Thus, the pair continues to fulfill our expectations for a decline to the level of 1.1290 or slightly higher. If you look at a more higher chart, it becomes clear that the pair in recent months anyway, but it is trading above the level of 1.1290 and does not go above 1.1500. Fundamental data now have a very indirect effect on the movement of the pair or not at all. For example, the US data released last Friday was very strong, but a strong movement down the pair failed. Based on this, we believe that the market needs some kind of impetus for volatility to recover at least to average values. Thus, the push may be, by the way, pending purchase orders located near the level of 1.1290. However, in general, reduced volatility is not a global problem. Moreover, the pair confidently overcame both the Ichimoku cloud and the support level of 1.1392. Today, a not too important report on the trade balance was published in the United States. In November, the deficit amounted to 49.3 billion dollars, which turned out to be better than the forecast values. But there was no particular reaction to this report, and no further news was received today. Thus, traders are left to trade on pure "technique", which now indicates a weak downward movement.
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair continues a slight downward movement. So now there are actual sell orders with a goal of 1,1329. Overall, we still expect a smooth decline in the level of 1,1290.
Buy-positions can be considered not earlier than the consolidation of the price above the Kijun-sen line with the target of 1.1516. However, it will need strong news supporting the euro, or a preliminary decline in the pair to the area of 1.1290.
In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.
Explanation of illustration:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-sen-red line.
Kijun-sen – blue line.
Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.
Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.
Chikou span – green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD:
Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.
