The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 50p - 44p - 30p - 63p - 82p.
Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 54p (45p).
On Wednesday, February 13, the EUR / USD currency pair completed an upward correction due to another batch of "mind-blowing" information from the eurozone. Recently, it has often been reported that there might be a possible recession in the United States, a slowdown in the economy, a weakening of inflation, and a refusal by the Fed to take a course on a planned increase in interest rates. In practice, we have excellent NonFarm Payrolls, good GDP and the absence of such a decline in key macroeconomic indicators. Today, in the United States, inflation was published in January. And it turned out that on an annualized basis, the figure remained at the same level - 2.2%. However, this is according to weaker forecasts. Now let's take a look at industrial production in the Eurozone, which was also published today: -4.2% in December in annual terms and -0.9% in the month. The question is, on what basis do traders buy European currency? However, before the day we said that, most likely, scenario will return the pair to 1.1500. Moreover, based on the strength of technical factors, we also think that the euro currency luckily has not yet collapsed to price parity with the US dollar. If the bears still doesn't reach the area of 1.1270 - 1.1290, then we can quite expect a new fall in the euro on 5 or even 10 cents. Technical indicators, by the way, already predict a new downward movement for the pair, but we believe that the pair will still attempt to return to at least 1.1400. Thus, the new reversal of the MACD upward indicator will indicate a new approach to the upward movement.
Trading recommendations:
EUR / USD pair completed the first round of correction, but the second is very likely to happen. Now formally relevant are new shorts with targets 1.1274 and 1.1248. However, the reversal of the MACD indicator to the top will signal the closing of these positions.
Buy positions can be considered small lots after bulls overcome the Kijun-Sen line with the first target resistance level of 1.1356, and then to 1.1414.
In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanation of the illustration:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen - the red line.
Kijun-sen - the blue line.
Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.
Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.
Chinkou Span - green line.
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD Indicator
Red line and histogram with white bars are shown in the indicator window.
