For the last trading day, the currency pair Pound / Dollar displayed a high volatility of 115 points, while drawing a wide amplitude of oscillation. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have an amplitude fluctuation of 1.2830 / 1.2920, where the quotation felt again the point of support at the lower boundary. On the other hand, information news background had a wide stream in itself. We will start with Britain, where inflation data were released with the expectation of a decline. As a result, we accepted it, but the decrease turned out to be more than the forecast: Previous. 2.1% ---> Forecast 1.9% ---> Fct. 1.8%. Naturally, this kind of image can shook the British currency, which is already going through difficult times. Other than that, we have inflation in the United States, wherein a decline from 1.9% to 1.5% is expected, but as a result we got 1.6%. The life-giving one-tenth gave confidence to the bears, and together with poor statistics from the UK, we returned to the local minimum on February 12. Information background presented rumors about Brexit again. This time, ITV journalist overheard a conversation about Brexit in a bar in Brussels, with the leading adviser of Theresa May, Olly Robbins. The importance of the overheard conversation was that Prime Minister, Theresa May, specifically postponed the date of the vote. This is necessary in order to frighten his allies in the Conservative Party and not to postpone the dates, but to force him to accept the current agreement as it is.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar , we are waiting for data on retail sales in the US and producer prices, where both are expected to decline.
US 16: 30msk - Producer Price Index (PPI) (YoY) (Jan): Prev. 2.5% ---> Forecast 2.1%
US 16:30 MSK - Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec): Prev. 0.2% ---> Forecast 0.1%
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see a visible slowdown around the value of 1.2830, followed by a rollback. It is likely to assume the preservation of the amplitude oscillation 1.2830 / 1.2920, where both work is possible within the range and during its breakdown.
Based on the available data, it is possible to break down a number of variations. Let us consider them:
- We consider purchase positions in two versions: First, short-term call from 1.2880, to 1.2920; The second option, we wait for a clear price fixing higher than 1.2920.
- We consider selling positions in two versions: First, from the upper border of the range 1.2920, which is a risky move; Second, we wait for a clear fixation lower than 1.2830.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF ), we see that there was an upward interest against the background of a rebound from 1.2830 in the short term. While in intraday and mid-term, prospects maintain a downward interest against the general background of the market.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(February 14 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 29 points. In the case of the preservation of the amplitude of 1.2830 / 1.2920, the volatility will be fixed within the framework of the average daily indicator.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.2920 *; 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1,3200 *; 1.3300; 1.3440 **; 1.3580 *; 1.3700.
Support areas: 1.2830 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
