4-hour timeframe
The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 44p - 30p - 63p - 82p - 82p.
Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 60p (54p).
The EUR/USD currency pair began a new round of upward movement on Thursday, February 14. We can say that the European currency is luck for the day. First, the preliminary value of GDP for the fourth quarter did not fail. Second, retail sales in the United States were significantly worse than the forecasts of experts in all reports, including car sales. Thus, the European currency received short-term support and managed to work out the critical line of Kijun-sen again. As we have noted more than once, we expect an upward movement on the instrument to the level of 1.1500. Over the last couple of days, the pair tried to overcome the level of 1.1270 - 1.1290 at least twice, but it's hard to say that this worked out well. Therefore, the option with the growth of 1.1500 is still there. The MACD indicator moved up, which also signals that the pair is ready for an upward movement. At the same time, we do not rule out the option of continuing the downward movement, but traders still need to overcome a specified area for this. No major economic publications are scheduled for release on the last trading day of the week in the United States and the eurozone, so you can only expect unexpected news, if at all. Overcoming the critical Kijun-sen line will be a significant step for the instrument to start moving upwards.
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair started a new round of correction. Short positions with a target of 1.1231 will formally be relevant again if the price remains below the critical line, and the MACD indicator turns down.
Buy orders can be considered in small lots after bulls overcome the Kijun-sen line with the first target at a resistance level of 1.1351. From a fundamental point of view, it will be difficult to implement this option for the euro.
In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.
Explanation of illustration:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-sen-red line.
Kijun-sen – blue line.
Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.
Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.
Chikou span – green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD:
Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.
