4-hour timeframe
The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 30p - 63p - 82p - 82p - 72p.
Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 66p (60p).
On Monday, February 18, the EUR/USD currency pair continues the upward movement started last Friday. The movement is not too strong, but nevertheless. No important macroeconomic reports have been published today, so we exclude the fundamental component in the impact on the movement of the pair. From our point of view, the main reason for the strengthening of the European currency is a strong support area of 1.1250 – 1.1290, which the pair failed to overcome with three attempts. Thus, it is quite possible that a new upward movement to the level of 1.1500 started from current price values. Of course, the report on industrial production in the US also disappointed traders, the figure unexpectedly fell in January. Also, there was also a threat of a new "shutdown" in the United States, as Trump failed to agree with Congress on the financing of the wall project on the border with Mexico. Trump is now going to introduce a state of emergency that will allow him to use the funds from a special fund. The Democrats have already indicated their desire to sue Trump's decision, and Trump himself has indicated a desire to veto any decision of Congress. However, we do not believe that the American epic with the wall will put strong pressure on the US dollar. Therefore, at the moment, the highest level for the euro will be 1,1500. From a technical point of view, the "dead cross" has not even been abolished yet. The upward movement may continue to the nearest target – 1.1345.
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair continues its weak upward movement. Thus, long positions with targets of 1.1345 and 1.1391 are now relevant, but in small lots, since the "golden cross" has not been formed at the moment.
Sell orders will again become relevant not earlier than when the traders overcome the moving average line with targets of 1.1259 and 1.1237, but they have to rely on a stronger downward movement.
In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.
Explanation of illustration:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-sen-red line.
Kijun-sen – blue line.
Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.
Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.
Chikou span – green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD:
Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.
