4-hour timeframe
The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 49p - 144p - 61p - 36p - 57p.
Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 69p (68p).
On Wednesday, March 13, the EUR/USD currency pair continues a weak upward movement without any pullbacks. A report on industrial production in January was published today in the eurozone. It was found that the decline compared with January of last year is at 1.1%, although the predicted value was 2.1% y/y. In monthly terms, this figure added 1.4%, which is also higher than market expectations. As a result of this news, the European currency added an entire 10 points during the day. We have repeatedly said that all the attention of the market has now shifted to the British pound, which beats volatility records for the third day in a row. At the moment, only a few have the desire to trade in euro currency. Even a much more important report on durable goods orders in the United States had no effect on the movement of the currency pair. Orders excluding defense and aviation increased in January by 0.8%, excluding transport - decreased by 0.1%. The main indicator rose 0.4%. Two of the three indicators were better than expected, but paired with the euro, did not provide any support for the US dollar. Therefore, most likely, both today and tomorrow, the sluggish movement of the EUR/USD pair will continue, as news from the UK does not stop coming. From a technical point of view, there is no reason to expect at least a downward correction at the moment, since the MACD indicator is pointing up. Bollinger bands turned upstairs. The Ichimoku indicator has formed a "golden cross".
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair continues to move up. Thus, it is now recommended to consider longs for the resistance level of 1.1351, but in small lots, since the "golden cross" remains weak and the volatility is extremely low.
Sell orders are recommended to be considered if the bears manage to gain a foothold below the Kijun-sen line. In this case, the shorts will be relevant with the goal of 1.1145.
In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanation of illustration:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-sen-red line.
Kijun-sen – blue line.
Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.
Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.
Chikou span – green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD:
A red line and a histogram with white bars in the indicator window.
