Over the last trading day, the pound / dollar currency pair showed an underestimated volatility of 65 pips, a rather interesting picture of price development. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have seen a fairly steady correction movement, having a total of more than 180 points of travel from the fulcrum. Where did the quote go? In the previous review, we discussed possible points of resistance, and it is just the first theoretical point in the face of a local maximum on May 27 (1.2746 - Max correction to H4) which played the role of a ceiling, slowing down the movement and forming a recovery process. Considering the graph in general terms, we see that all is not lost, the clock cleanliness of the "Impulse --- Correction" is still on the market until the coordinates fall 1,2746 (May 27). Theoretically, we can now get the clock frequency of the "Pulse", which we will discuss later.
The news background had statistics on business activity in the UK services sector in May, where we saw an increase from 50.4 to 51.0, while the forecast was 50.6. This news supported the British currency, but a more significant movement is waiting for us later. In the afternoon, data on Nonfarm Payrolls USA came out (change in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector), where we saw a significant decline in May. Employment grew by only 27 thousand compared to April with 275 thousand. On this regard, the pound continued its rapid growth, reaching a local maximum on May 27. We saw a decline afterwards. What could be the reason? It probably reflected the EURUSD currency pair.
According to ancient tradition, we complete the information and news background on Brexit. In previous reviews, we already talked about US President Donald Trump's trip to Britain, where he is quite positive and is inspired by the "divorce" process, arguing that the UK just needs to leave the EU in any outcome. Of course, everything is fine. And on the same positive note, the American automaker Ford is preparing to announce the closure of the plant, which employs two thousand people. Earlier, representatives of the concern said that in case of the so-called tough Brexit, Ford could lose up to $ 1 billion. I think it's not even worth commenting on the above issue because everything is clear yet.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we, in principle, do not have statistics on Britain and the United States, but the focus of all traders is the ECB press conference, where Mario Draghi can report on the future of monetary policy. It might be interesting for the pound because of the high correlation between the EUR / USD and GBP / USD pairs.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quotation is actively building up the process of restoring the descending move, giving a hint about a possible tact "Impulse". In principle, considering the overall picture of the graph, this theory is possible, but earlier we wrote that today, a press conference of the ECB is held, which can exert pressure and unpredictability in actions. Thus, it is primary and possible that we analyze the behavior of the quotation and the outgoing information background and make a trading decision, since this is a temporary stagnation relative to current values.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators in the short term are set in a downward phase due to the current recovery. Intraday perspective changed interest from rising interest to neutral due to recovery and stagnation. Medium term has a downward interest.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.
(June 6 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 23 points. Volatility due to the recovery process and the information background can possibly grow.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.2770 **; 1.2880 (1.2865-1.2880) *; 1.2920 * 1.3000 **; 1.3180 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700.
Support areas: 1.2620; 1,2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
