Over the last trading day, the euro / dollar currency pair showed a high volatility of 87 points, as a result of having a V-shaped amplitude of oscillation. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see a tremendous movement, where at first the inertial move was maintained, driving the quotation down to the range level of 1.1300, after which there was a sharp movement over 80 points. Considering the trading schedule, in general terms, we see that the picture changes every day, and the fact that the previous "Impulse --- Correction" measures have already gone astray is clear to everyone, but we already have something new. If we consider the second half of the day (June 5), then we see how the quotation promptly returned to the border of the previously passed side channel 1.1265, fixing below it.
We turn to the information and news background, which gave us all this wonderful rally. What was the reason - let's sort everything out in order. At first, we had quite positive statistics from Europe regarding business activity in the services sector, where there was a characteristic increase from 52.5 to 52.9. The euro has already been charged on statistics and background for more than one day, and after the data was released, we maintained a bullish interest. In the afternoon, data on the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector of the United States came out, and here we saw that in May the increase was only 27 thousand, compared to the period of April, where the figure was 275 thousand. Lose positions and quotes reached the range level of 1.1300. After that, we see a sharp draining of the euro by more than 80 points. What is the reason? It was found right in the information background. There were statements by analysts from large European banks saying that a quantitative easing program is expected to resume by the beginning of next year. After that, there has been information pertaining to the demand for futures on lowering the refinancing rate of the ECB which is expected to grow in early 2020.
With such a negative background, everyone ran to merge the overbought euro as soon as possible.
Today, the focus of all traders, of course, is the ECB meeting followed by a press conference, where our beloved Mario Draghi has a lot to say. Listen to his rhetoric as carefully as possible. Many experts expect him to talk about the future of monetary policy. We'll see.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading schedule, we see that after such a rapid downward rally, the quotation is trying to roll back, which is quite normal. However, due to the upcoming information background, the decisiveness of the traders is unstable. It is likely to assume that on the eve of the press conference, there may be a temporary stagnation in the form of preparation, but after which, depending on the rhetoric of the ECB, there will be leaps. Where are we going? Everything, of course, is ambiguous, since Mario's rhetoric is unpredictable, many traders take a waiting position outside the market in order not to run into punctures. Speculators are waiting for at least some slowdown on smaller timeframes in order to make a stretch of pending orders and fly into the first impulse.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators in the short, intraday and medium term are prone to upward interest, but due to the massive information background indicators can still be subjected to change.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.
(June 6 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 23 points. Due to the information background, volatility can grow.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.1300 **; 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100.
Support areas: 1.1180; 1.1112; 1.1080 *; 1.1000 ***; 1.0850 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
