Inflation in the United States slowed more than expected, falling from 2.0% to 1.8% instead of 1.9%, but the dollar still managed to strengthen its position. However, such a decrease in inflation practically leaves the Federal Reserve System with no choice but to reduce the refinancing rate. There are already rumors about such a development on the market, and the latest inflation data will only strengthen them, which will make market participants pretty nervous.
Yet the dollar still strengthened, which causes a certain surprise. Of course, Mario Draghi spoke yesterday, and it goes without saying that the head of the European Central Bank will say something that could bring down the single European currency. But during his speech, he did not say a word about the interest rate. He did not address the issue of monetary policy at all. His speech was devoted to the advantages of a single European market, especially for Eastern Europe. He also focused on the problems that are currently facing the countries of the region. Thus, the strange market reaction is not caused by the words of the head of the European Central Bank. The reason lies in Italy, which again muddies the water. The League of the North Party, which is part of the ruling coalition, proposed to issue bills with a small face value, which will be offered to citizens. The proceeds from the sale of these promissory notes are planned to be used to pay off part of the public debt, especially to Italian companies. But the idea itself is not something new, and generally had to pass by. However, it is proposed to allow the holders of these bills to use them to pay taxes, which, in effect, turns them into a parallel currency. This idea has already been voiced by the Minister of Finance of Italy, clearly ahead of angry cries from Berlin, which will surely follow. So the Italian question again forced investors to grab at the heart.
It is obvious that after such an emotional and largely unjustified decline of the dollar, a certain correction is inevitable due to the awareness of what happened. However, for such things, at least some reason is needed, and today, only industrial production in Europe leaves the macroeconomic data, which is currently decreasing by 0.6%. It is expected that it will slowdown to 0.5%, which, despite the obvious improvement in dynamics, is still a statement of the rather deplorable state of the European economy.
The euro / dollar currency pair felt resistance in the area of 1.1345 once again, turning the quotation to the level of 1.1300. It is likely to assume that the quotation will try to fix above the level of 1.1300, then amplitude fluctuation is possible within 20 points.
The pound / dollar currency pair outlines the characteristic outset of 1.2670 / 1.2745, where the quote is currently developing at the lower boundary. A temporary fluctuation within 1.2670 / 1.2700 is probably assumed, where traders analyze the behavior of quotes and fixation points.
