EUR/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair is trading along with the correction level of 76.4% (1.1367). Most of the traders either left the market or hid as much as possible on the eve of the G20 summit. On the agenda, in fact, is one question: will the leaders of China and the United States agree on a trade agreement? Of course, it is unlikely, if they can, the agreement will be signed "immediately". Thus, the main question is: will there be progress in the negotiations or will the trade conflict flare up with a new force? A lot will depend on this, starting with the mood of traders in the next week or two, ending with the actions of the Fed regarding monetary policy. Even now, Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Fed, is considering the feasibility of reducing the key rate in July, in fact, just like everyone else, waiting for the results of the G-20 summit. Powell has repeatedly drawn attention to the fact that it is the US trade wars that carry the maximum risks for the country's economy. Thus, today, the closing above/below the Fibo level of 76.4% will be formal, and traders' attention will be focused on inflation in the Eurozone for June.
The Fibo grid is built on extremums from March 20, 2019, and May 23, 2019.
Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair is trading near the correction level of 76.4%. Thus, I recommend waiting for the release of the inflation report in the European Union today, after which either to trade "on the news", or to analyze the reaction of the market and start trading next week, as today there is a high probability of a flat.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The GBP/USD pair made a new return to the correction level of 76.4% (1.2661). The new rebound of the pair from this Fibo level will again allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the pound and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 61.8% (1.2661). Today, the divergence is not observed in any indicator. At this time, the main candidate for the post of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that he did not support the idea of suspending the work of Parliament to ensure non-interference in the process of the country's exit from the EU, probably on the "hard" option. Johnson supports democracy and believes that every politician should face the entire government and ensure the country's implementation of the option that the people chose in the referendum. Earlier, Boris Johnson reported that the country, in any case, will leave the European Union until October 31. One thing is for sure now: the bulls have stopped considering the pound even as an attractive short-term instrument. There is a high probability of resuming the fall of the pound/dollar pair. Closing the quotes below the Fibo level of 76.4% will work in favor of the US dollar and will allow traders to count on a fall in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% (1.2661), and cancel the bullish divergence at the same time.
The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of January 3, 2019, and March 13, 2019.
GBP/USD – 1H.
As seen on the hourly chart, the pound/dollar pair remained between the correction levels of 61.8% (1.2665) and 76.4% (1.2701), although there was an attempt to get out of this side channel. As a result, the pair performed a fall to the Fibo level of 61.8% again. A new rebound on June 28 from this level of correction will work in favor of the pound and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 76.4%. The consolidation of the pair's rate under the Fibo level of 61.8% will increase the chances of a further fall in the direction of the correction level of 50.0% (1.2634).
The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of June 7, 2019, and June 18, 2019.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair performed a fall towards the correction level of 61.8%. I recommend selling the pair with the targets at 1.2634 and 1.2603, with the stop-loss order above 1.2665, if the closing is performed under the level of 61.8%(hourly chart). I recommend buying the pair with the purpose of 1.2701, if it will be rebounded from a Fibo level of 76.4% and with a stop-loss level of 1.2665 (hourly chart).
