EUR/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a new consolidation under the correction level of 76.4% (1.1367) and continues the process of falling in the direction of the correction level of 61.8% (1.1318). The results of the G20 summit, which ended in Tokyo, satisfied traders. It became known that Donald Trump held an 80-minute meeting with Xi Jinping, during which they discussed the trade deal between the countries. Trump called this meeting productive, which gives hope for an agreement between China and the United States in the near future, which will put an end to the trade war. In addition, the European Union on Friday released a report on inflation, which showed 1.2% in June. Exactly the same level of inflation was in May, and it is much lower than the target level, which was determined by the European Central Bank. Consumer confidence, according to the University of Michigan, was 98.2 in June, higher than traders' expectations. In general, Friday and weekend news can be called positive for the US dollar. The rebound of the pair from the Fibo level of 61.8% will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the euro and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 76.4%. Closing the pair's rate under the Fibo level of 61.8% will work in favor of continuing the fall in the direction of the next correction level of 50.0% (1.1278).
The Fibo grid is built on extremums from March 20, 2019, and May 23, 2019.
Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair performed a fall towards the correction level of 61.8% (1.1318). I recommend selling the pair with the targets at 1.1278 and 1.1238, with the stop-loss order above 1.1318, if the closing is performed under the level of 61.8%. I recommend buying the pair with the purpose of 1.1367, if it will be rebounded from a Fibo level of 61.8% and with a stop-loss order under 1.1318.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The GBP/USD pair made several attempts to consolidate below the correction level of 76.4% (1.2661), all of them ended in failures. A new rebound of the pound/dollar pair from this Fibo level allowed the quotes to perform a small increase. At the moment, the pair began the process of returning to the correction level of 76.4% against the backdrop of the growth of the US dollar after the G20 summit. In pair with the pound, the dollar growth is not as strong as in pair with the euro. Thus, the euro currency factor may also play its role. The pound sterling has been deprived of news feed in recent days. The topic of Brexit, the election of the British Prime Minister and the leader of the Conservative Party does not attract as much attention as before, as traders need specific decisions and facts on these issues. Since there is nothing of this now, there are only election speeches of Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt, as well as arguments on what Brexit should be and when it should happen, the market simply refuses to trade on the basis of these arguments. On Monday, July 1, the indices of business activity in the UK and America are the only reports that will arouse interest among traders. In both countries, there is a downward trend in business activity.
The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of January 3, 2019, and March 13, 2019.
GBP/USD – 1H.
As seen on the hourly chart, the pound/dollar pair remains between the correction levels of 61.8% (1.2665) and 76.4% (1.2701), although there was another attempt to get out of this side channel. As a result, the pair has a chance to fall to the Fibo level of 61.8%. A new rebound from this level of correction will work in favor of the English currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 76.4%. The consolidation of the pair's rate under the Fibo level of 61.8% will increase the chances of a further fall in the direction of the correction level of 50.0% (1.2634).
The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of June 7, 2019, and June 18, 2019.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair closed below the Fibo level of 76.4%. I recommend selling the pair with targets at 1.2665 and 1.2634, with the stop-loss order above the level of 1.2701. I recommend buying the pair with the purpose of 1.2762 if the closing above the Fibo level is 76.4%, and with the stop-loss order under 1.2701 (hourly chart).
