USD / JPY pair
In the past three days, the USD/JPY pair has slowed growth before the technical resistance of the price channel line. Hence, the Marlin oscillator signal line showed an intention to turn down with the subsequent formation of divergence with the price on the daily chart. There is no consolidation over resistance. In case of a deterioration of external conditions, the target level of 109.64 may not be achieved (in the near future).
Today, the Bank of Japan left the monetary policy decision unchanged. The unemployment rate fell from 2.4% to 2.3% but industrial production fell by 3.6% m/m in June. The market reacted to the news with a decrease in the pair.
Divergence is already formed on the four-hour chart. The positive scenario assumes price development within the upward price channel because for a full-fledged divergence on the daily chart. The price should still be overcome by the July 10 maximum at 109.00.
However, on the other hand, an unexpressed divergence will become the basis for a slight fall in the price. The first target will be to support the MACD line in the area of 108.28 on H4. Overcoming the support and securing it can send the price lower to a minimum on July 11 at a price of 107.87. The probability of a decline to 108.28 is 60% and to 107.87 about 45%.
