When building a daily trading plan, we must keep in mind that the closing of trading last month occurred below the average monthly move. It increases the likelihood of a return to the level of 1.2208 by 90%. This level is within the average daily course, which makes it an excellent target for today.
A test of the level of 1.2208 will not break the downward impulse, which will allow us to consider the "false breakdown" pattern for entering a short position in the future.
An alternative model will be developed if today's growth exceeds the average daily move and the close of trading occurs above the 1/2 WCZ of 1.2263-1.2247. In this case, the downward impulse phase will be completed and purchases will come to the fore tomorrow. The probability of implementing this model is 30%, which makes it an auxiliary.
Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.
Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from the important futures market, which changes several times a year.
Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.
