EUR/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair in the last two days is trading quietly between the correction levels of 61.8% (1.1224) and 76.4% (1.1180), alternately fighting off one or the other. The last rebound was from the level of 76.4%, so traders can count on the growth of the euro/dollar pair in the direction of the Fibo level of 61.8%. Unfortunately for the pair, nothing interesting is happening in America and the European Union. On August 9, the news calendar is empty, so traders can once again focus on the topics of the Fed's rate cut, the trade war between Beijing and Washington. Although these topics are already fed up, there is no fundamentally new information on them. Based on this, the best option is to focus on indicator analysis until new and interesting data are available. An indicator analysis predicts the movement of the pair between the Fibo levels. First, it is expected to rise to 1.1224, and then everything will depend on whether there will be a breakthrough or a retreat from this level. In the first case, the chances of the continued growth of EUR/USD quotes with a target of 1.1260 will increase, in the second – we are waiting for a return to 1.1180.
The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of May 23, 2019, and June 25, 2019.
Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair performed the rebound from the correction level of 76.4% (1.1180). I recommend buying EUR/USD with the target of 1.1224 and 1.1260, with stop-loss order below the level of 1.1180. I recommend selling the pair with a target of 1.1107, and with a stop-loss order above the level of 1.1180, if the closing is performed under a correction level of 76.4%.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The most interesting thing is now happening in the UK and it is not directly related to Brexit, and the political crisis, which can develop into a constitutional. According to many anonymous interviews with politicians of Parliament, a plot is brewing against Boris Johnson. A conspiracy to dismiss the Prime Minister and prevent the UK from leaving the EU without agreements. The Labor Party opposes Johnson openly and declares that he is an opponent of Brexit "No Deal". However, it is known that within the Conservative Party, many do not support this option of Brexit. Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the Labor Party, is preparing to declare Johnson a vote of no confidence. If this vote is approved by Parliament (for example, in the case of Theresa May, the vote of no confidence was twice rejected by Parliament), Johnson will need to resign. However, he doesn't have to do it. According to the current legislation of the UK, the vote of no confidence approved by the Parliament is only an appeal to the Prime Minister to leave his post. However, only the Queen can forcibly remove the Prime Minister from his post. Thus, even with the approved vote, Johnson can continue to remain Prime Minister until his dismissal is approved by Queen Elizabeth II. Over the past 200 years, there has not yet been a case in Great Britain when it was necessary to resort to the Queen's request to dismiss the Prime Minister. However, Johnson – personality ambiguous, odious, in his case, he may well refuse to comply with the will of Parliament and then there will be nothing else but to ask the Queen. Of course, in this case, the rating of conservatives will fall "below the plinth". And in the future, Brexit means that it can be brought to an end, but Johnson will still need Parliament support in this matter. Parliament, which intends to declare his vote of no confidence.
The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of January 3, 2019, and March 13, 2019.
GBP/USD – 1H.
As seen on the hourly chart, the pound/dollar pair continues to trade strictly between the Fibo levels of 200.0% (1.2227) and 261.8% (1.2057). The bearish divergence formed by the CCI indicator allows us to expect a fall to the Fibo level of 261.8%. However, the rebound from the correction level of 127.2% - 1.2180 on the 4-hour chart is still higher.
The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of June 18, 2019, and June 25, 2019.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair may resume the process of falling. Thus, I recommend selling the pair with the target of 1.2057, with the stop-loss level above the bearish divergence peak. I recommend buying the pair with the target of 1.2334 and with the stop-loss order below the level of 200.0%(hourly chart) if the closing is performed above the level of 1.2180.
