4-hour timeframe
Technical details:
Senior linear regression channel: direction - down.
Junior linear regression channel: upward direction.
Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.
CCI: -116.2373
The GBP/USD currency pair has fixed back below the moving average line, which in turn changes to a downward trend again. In the UK, Boris Johnson managed to give several interviews over the weekend, from which it became known that the Prime Minister met with opposition leader Jeremy Corbin, and the latter was criticized. Johnson said that "the main choice is whether parliamentarians go over to the side of Jeremy Corbin, to the side of those who want to celebrate Brexit -to those who want to renounce the democratic choice of the people? Or will they remain on the side of those who want to realize the will of the people and achieve success? " The fact that the suspension of parliament for five weeks is not a very democratic decision; Boris Johnson does not care. However, the Prime Minister still notes that exit from the EU is impossible unless parliament approves it, and urged not to disrupt the implementation of "hard" Brexit.
On September 2, the hearing of the illegitimate suspension of the work of the British Parliament in the Scottish Court is scheduled, initiated by a group of 75 deputies. Previously, the case was already considered in "emergency mode", but the judge refused to cancel the decision of Boris Johnson, approved by Queen Elizabeth II, because there was too little time to understand all of the aspects of the case. Today, there will be enough time and the illusive hope is still present that the court will block the new "parliamentary holidays" or at least postpone them for an indefinite period.
The following day, on September 3, is the release date of the parliament from the summer holidays. On this day the question of a vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson by the opposition, led by Labor leader Jeremy Corbin, will most likely be tabled for discussion immediately. The opposition has only one week left to cancel the suspension of parliament and try to dismiss the odious prime minister. We have already written that a vote of no confidence does not oblige Johnson to resign. However, it will cast a shadow on him and his foreign policy, which questions trusting him the country in general. Also, a vote of no confidence would mean an open war between parliament and the government throughout Johnson's entire term. Even if Johnson doesn't resign voluntarily, a vote must be passed so that negotiations with the prime minister are more easily negotiated in the future.
Thus, the next two days will be very important for the UK, and the pound can show quite strong volatility.As before, any event that increases the likelihood of a "hard" Brexit is a "bearish" factor, and a decrease is a "bullish" one.
Nearest support levels:
S1 - 1.2146
S2 - 1.2085
S3 - 1.2024
The nearest resistance levels:
R1 - 1,2207
R2 - 1.2268
R3 - 1.2329
Trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair continues to move downward. Thus, if it is now recommended to sell the pound/dollar pair with targets of 1.2146 and 1.2085, this is facilitated by the technical picture and fundamental background. It is definitely not recommended to buy pound sterling before the results of the meeting of the Scottish Court and the first day of Parliament's work.
In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.
Explanations for illustrations:
The oldest linear regression channel is the blue unidirectional lines.
The lowest linear channel is the violet lines of unidirectional movement.
CCI - blue line in the indicator regression window.
Moving average (20; smoothed) - a blue line on the price chart.
Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.
Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.