Today, the focus of the markets will be on the publication of data on the index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector in the services of the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), the value of orders for durable goods and employment figures from ADP in the US.
All investors will pay attention to the release of the values of American economic statistics after the publication on Wednesday of positive data on the index of business activity in the services sector of China, which added up to 52.1 points in August against 51.6 points in September. Investors will be interested in how the US-China Trade War affects the United States. This is an important point, which will undoubtedly allow either a degree of optimism in the markets to last or not.
According to the forecasts, the American economy will receive 148,000 new jobs in August against the July figure of 156,000. Given the emerging general trend of cooling in the US economy, this is a good forecast.
If in the case of a decrease in the data of labor market, then the index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector and in the services sector of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is expected to increase to 54.0 points from 53.7 points. These data, together with the values of the volume of orders for durable goods, can have a positive impact on the mood of market participants if they do not let us down and show positive dynamics.
On the other hand, if the US statistics come with good values, the dollar may receive support against major currencies, as their positive values will reduce expectations of a more active reduction in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve. Of course, after these values, the attention of the markets will focus on the output of the official values for the number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector and the unemployment rate in the US, which will be presented tomorrow on Friday.
Forecast of the day:
The EUR/USD pair demonstrates the likelihood of a local reversal in the wake of expectations of positive data on the US economy, which will be released today. If they do not disappoint and the price remains below the level of 1.1025, there is a possibility of its fall to 1.0925.
The USD/CAD pair found support at 1.3210. If data from the United States turns out to be strong and oil prices turn down, we should expect a local recovery of the pair to 1.3255. But if the price consolidates below the level of 1.3210, data from America will be weaker and oil quotes will go up, we should expect the pair to continue its decline to 1.3175.
