Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
S1: 106.15 R1: 106.57
S2: 105.80 R2: 106.96
S3: 105.28 R3: 107.13
Technical Overview:
With the break below important support at 105.71 we have had to change to a more bearish short-term count. This count calls for a deeper correction in black wave ii from the top at 107.13. Our first minor target 105.53 has already been met. However, looking at the structure of the correction from 107.13 down to the current low at 105.28 it is clearly in three waves, which could indicate that it was only wave a of a flat correction. That said it could also be the full correction and mark the end of black wave ii. Which one is the correct call? Looking at the EWQ indicator at the bottom of the chart we cannot see any divergence between the price and the EWO, which tilt the preferred count in direction of this three-wave decline only being a wave a, and wave b is currently developing. As we are looking at a flat correction that means a return is very close to the top of wave i at 107.13. However, it could develop into an expanded flat correction, it will signify a break above the top of wave i at 107.13. Again we have to see how the b-wave rally from 105.28 unfolds and takes it from there. But for now we should look for a minor rally back to the top of wave i at 107.13.
Trading Recommendation:
Our stop at 105.70 was hit for a small loss. As we really do not know what kind of correction we have to expect except for a flat correction, we prefer to stay on the sideline till the picture clears up.
If you are a short-term aggressive trader you could buy EUR close to 106.15 with a stop at 105.65 and take profit at 106.95. That would leave you with a risk/rewards ratio slightly better than 1:1.
