EUR/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair fell to the correction level of 161.8% (1.0918) and closed below it. It should be noted that the closing at the moment is not too confident, and everything can still end with a rebound from the specified level. Nevertheless, a more confident consolidation will increase the probability of a further drop in quotations in the direction of the next corrective level of 200.0% (1.0802) within the downward trend channel, in which the euro/dollar pair continues to be located.
If we briefly analyze the information background and the movement of the EUR/USD currency pair over the past year, one thing becomes clear: most of this year, the US currency was in high demand and steadily grew against the euro. Thus, based on this factor, it can be concluded that the initiation of the impeachment procedure of Donald Trump does not affect the growth of the dollar. That is, the reason for the growth of the US currency is not impeachment of Trump. Why? Because Trump has done a lot over the last year of his presidency, which has led to a slowdown in the US economy and the global economy: he launched a trade war with China, which is disadvantageous for both sides, stopped the work of all public services for a record period due to lack of funding. And the dollar continued to grow. Thus, I believe that the main reason for the continued growth of the US currency lies in the strength of the US economy, which even taking into account the slowdown, is still stronger than the European one (if you take the EUR/USD pair). It is not worth talking about the British economy now.
Well, the topic of possible impeachment becomes quite clear if you remember the chronology of events and ask yourself the question: what else did the Democrats have to do? That is, Donald Trump, roughly speaking, gave rise to his opponents to begin the impeachment procedure. The main opposing party is the Democratic. The main contender for the presidency in 2020 – Joe Biden – representative of the Democrats. Donald Trump asked Vladimir Zelensky to investigate Biden's activities in Ukraine. It is clear that to cast a shadow on the main competitor in the run-up to the presidential election. The circle is complete. The Democrats had no choice but to take advantage of the given chance and start the impeachment procedure, as there are reasons for this. Trump was accused of violating the oath, and, according to rough estimates, 218 politicians are ready to support the start of the impeachment procedure. That's how many votes it takes to start the procedure. And what the outcome of this procedure – it does not matter. If by some miracle it will be possible to displace Trump from his post – fine, the Democrats need it. If it does not succeed, then to cast a shadow on Donald Trump, who, it turns out, tried to get foreign aid in the 2020 elections and not quite honestly "eliminate" the main competitor, is also excellent. So it doesn't matter how the impeachment process ends? These are political wars between the two main parties of the country, between the two candidates for the presidency. No more.
On September 27, I expect the euro/dollar pair to continue falling in the direction of the correction level of 200.0% (1.0802). The information background today can be tangible, as several important economic reports will be released in America, and the topic of impeachment of the President may also be developed. The rebound of quotations from the Fibo level of 161.8% will work in favor of the euro and will allow traders to count on some growth in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% (1.1024).
The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of May 23, 2019, and June 25, 2019.
Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:
I recommend today to remain in previously opened sales with the target of 1.0927 and to open new ones with the target of 1.0802 if closing at 1.0918 is completed. A stop-loss order above the level of 1.0927.
It will be possible to buy the pair after the close above the downward trend channel, before – I do not recommend it.
