EUR/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair returned to the correction level of 127.2% (1.1024) and began to move gently along this level. Traders are fully focused on future news and economic reports. Since yesterday and today nothing interesting came from the European Union and the United States and is not expected, then on the chart it looks like a complete calm. Thus, even technical "rebounds", "breakdowns" and other signals do not have much significance now. You need to wait for news or for most traders, to start more active trading based on other reasons.
Yesterday, you can safely enter the category of weekends. There was a report on industrial production in the European Union, which showed a decrease in volumes by 2.8% y/y. However, traders decided not to pay attention to this report and extended their weekend for another day. Today, we have to fear that traders will not continue to rest for the fourth day in a row, as no interesting events are planned today. Moreover, most of the attention of traders is now clearly shifted towards the UK, the upcoming EU summit and, accordingly, the GBP/USD pair. It is this pair that shows that there are traders in the market, but they are now trading those pairs for which there is an interesting and important information background. The euro/dollar is not one of them.
Thus, the sluggishness of traders may continue until tomorrow, when the report on inflation in the European Union for September will be released. Forecasts predict a low value of the consumer price index again, but this time at least a decline. Although the real value for September may well be lower than August. Meanwhile, inflation in the EU is already less than 1.0% y/y. Such levels are not that far from the goals of the European Central Bank, the distance between them is now as between the Moon and the Earth. It may take years to accelerate inflation to 2%, and it is not a fact that this goal will be achieved. At least in recent years, the ECB has failed to achieve it. Moreover, now the ECB has begun to actively use the tools to stimulate the economy, but even with their use, the situation is not particularly changing for the better. Thus, I believe that the fall of the euro may resume shortly. The so-called respite is present, now nothing prevents bear traders from selling the euro and buying the dollar again.
What to expect from the euro/dollar currency pair today?
On October 15, traders are likely to continue to rest as well. In the calendar of economic events, the eye has nothing to catch on at all. Unless the index of mood in the business environment of the ZEW Institute and a similar indicator for Germany. However, do not expect a strong reaction from traders, who yesterday missed the report on industrial production, which is objectively more important. Until the moment when the activity of traders is restored, opening any trades is not the best option.
The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of May 23, 2019, and June 25, 2019.
Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:
I recommend selling the pair with a target of 1.0802 if a close below the level of 1.0918 is made. A stop-loss order above the level of 1.0927.
It will be possible to buy a pair in the event of a rebound from the correction level of 127.2% with the target of 1.1106 and the stop-loss level of 1.1024 if traders are activated.
