The British pound continues to storm, and after the morning "stuffing" that the deal could be disrupted due to a number of disagreements, the pound resumed its growth on statements from representatives of the EU and the UK. As it became known, according to representatives of the parties, negotiations between the UK and the EU are coming to an end, but the key problems have not yet been resolved. On Wednesday afternoon, EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier is due to meet with diplomatic representatives of the bloc countries. However, the meeting has been postponed to a later time.
This was done so that the British prime minister could manage to negotiate an agreement with the Democratic Union Party, since it is precisely its leaders who are still threatening to disrupt Downing Street's plans. Let me remind you that the deal will include the establishment of a regulatory and customs border for the Irish Sea.
Barnier's meeting with European leaders will give an assessment and recommendations on whether to sign an agreement at the EU summit scheduled for late this week or not. European Commissioner Dimitris Avramopoulos has already stated that significant unresolved issues remain in the negotiations on Brexit, noting that Barnier has already submitted his report to the European Commission. In it, the chief negotiator described the negotiations as constructive. Barnier was also optimistic that a deal with Brexit could be reached before the end of this week, but, according to some sources, the report also contains information on the need to extend the UK term for EU membership, which is scheduled for October 31. An extension is necessary even if a deal is reached.
The market completely ignored the data that the inflation rate in the UK remained stable in September this year. Most of the growth was maintained due to higher prices for hotel services and furniture. According to a report by the National Bureau of Statistics, CPI increased by 1.7% in September compared with the same period last year. In August of this year, the UK CPI was also 1.7%. Let me remind you that the target level of the Bank of England is 2%.
Slowing inflation will help the regulator resort to lower interest rates and stimulate the economy, which is seriously affected by the situation with Brexit and trade conflicts.
As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, only a breakthrough of the resistance of 1.2840 can lead to the continuation of the upward rally to the area of highs at 1.2920 and 1.2980. In case the pound declines on the evening news, which I mentioned above. Support will be provided by levels 1.2680 and 1.2560.
EURUSD
Eurozone data today did not cause major changes in the EURUSD pair. According to a Eurostat statistics agency report, annual inflation in the eurozone slowed again, which is bad news for the European Central Bank, which in September announced the start of a new phase of stimulating the economy. Thus, the CPI Eurozone CPI in September rose by 0.8% compared to the same period last year.
Meanwhile, the positive balance of foreign trade in the eurozone increased and amounted to 14.7 billion euros in August 2019 against 11.9 billion euros in August 2018. However, trade conflicts, for which there are no solutions, continue to negatively affect the indicator.
As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it remained unchanged. Bulls will continue to fight for the resistance of 1.1060, consolidation above which can provide risky assets to new buyers. If pressure on the euro returns, and this can happen after another unsuccessful attempt to break the resistance at 1.1060, then you can still return to long positions from support in the area of 1.1020, but larger long positions are best postponed until the low of 1.0990 is updated.
