Overview:
USD/JPY is consolidating with risks skewed higher as markets are awaiting 13:30 GMT U.S. November non-farm payrolls (expected +80,000) and unemployment rate (expected 7.9%). USD/JPY is underpinned by yen-funded carry trades as risk appetite improves (S&P rose 0.33% overnight) after bigger-than-expected drop in latest U.S. weekly jobless claims to 370,000 (vs. 375,000 forecast). USD/JPY is also supported by demand from Japan importers and investment trusts; expectations that opposition Liberal Democratic Party would win a parliamentary majority in the Dec. 16 elections and push for aggressive monetary easing. But USD/JPY gains tempered by Japan exporter sales; continued lack of progress in Washington toward resolving the fiscal cliff; positions adjustment before weekend.
Data focus:
23:50 GMT Japan November international reserves, November provisional trade statistics for 1st 20 days,
05:00 GMT Japan October indexes of business conditions (preliminary),
14:55 GMT U.S. December University of Michigan survey of consumers (preliminary),
20:00 GMT U.S. October consumer credit.
Preference:
Buy above 82.4 with targets 82.6 and 82.75.
Resistance Levels:
R1 - 82.61 (Thursday's high)
R2 - 82.75-82.84 (Nov. 30 high-Nov. 22 high)
R3 - 83.00
Alternative scenario:
Sell below 82.3. The downside breakout of 82.3 will open the way to 82.15 and 82.
Support Levels:
S1 - 82.20 (Thursday's low)
S2 - 82
S3 - 81.71-81.68 (Tuesday's low-Nov. 28 low)
Technical Comment:
The RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.USD/JPY daily chart is mixed as MACD and stochastic are in bearish mode; but five-day moving average is meandering sideways.
