The spot rate approaches the lower limit of its medium-term bullish channel at 106.20 suggesting a rebound. However, a break of these levels will free a large potential and initiate a violent bearish channel.
Technical indicators do not provide clear signals, but until the support is not broken the assumption of a rebound is most likely. Bollinger bands have stabilized showing a more regular volatility.
The spot rate is currently testing the lower limit of its channel, we suggest 2 scenarios. The first one is the hypothesis of a rebound where we recommend a buy on the level of 106.20 with the 1st objective at 106.80 and then at 107.00. A breakthrough of 106.00 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is a break of its support where we advise a “sell stop” which means to sell the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its support of 106.20 with the 1st objective at 105.60 and then at 105.40. A breakthrough of 106.40 will invalidate this scenario.
