4-hour timeframe
Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 112p - 58p - 41p - 63p - 52p.
Average volatility over the past 5 days: 65p (average).
The British pound sterling jumped early on Monday morning, based on something unknown, after which it eased and stopped all attempts to continue the illogical upward movement. We have already drawn the attention of traders to the fact that the pound is now growing solely on the positive expectations of most of the market regarding the outcome of the Parliament elections and, accordingly, Brexit. Simply put, everyone is waiting for the victory of the party of Boris Johnson and the implementation of Brexit until January 31, 2020. Everyone is waiting, but not everyone supports this option. As we have already written earlier, 12 December will choose not only politicians representing a particular party, but will also choose the option of implementing Brexit. As we recall, in the 2016 referendum, 48% of the residents of Great Britain did not support Brexit, which means that at least 48% of the inhabitants will not vote for Conservatives. However, the Conservative Party is more than enough for 52% of the vote, but it should be understood that a certain number of votes will be divided between other parties supporting Brexit, for example, selected by the party of Nigel Faraj. Thus, we still believe that the Johnson party will win the election, the number of deputy mandates is not enough to make decisions on their own.
Meanwhile, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn gave an extensive interview on BBC. Corbyn was asked several times about his personal attitude towards Brexit and each time the opposition leader shied away from an answer. He said: "We are going to challenge the British people, and they will make their decision. Within three months, negotiations will be held on a reliable, reasonable option for the country to leave the EU and the question of a new referendum will be raised. " This was followed by reflection on the need for close relations with the European Union in the future, as well as on "sweet" trade deals with Donald Trump and the destruction of the national health system, as the "prime minister wants". Recall that earlier Corbyn was repeatedly blamed for the lack of personal opinion on the issue of the country's exit from the EU. Many experts believe that it is precisely Corbyn's position that does not allow him to compete with Johnson's party. However, if you fantasize, what position Corbyn can take. To report, what supports Brexit, but on different terms? Report that does not support Brexit? The first option will raise the question, but "on what other conditions and how to achieve them?" In the second, the Laborites will lose a certain part of the electorate. Thus, it seems that the distribution of forces in Parliament after the next extraordinary elections will not change much.
In addition to the foregoing, we would like to draw the attention of traders to the Brexit party, which generously refused to compete with the Conservatives. We would like to ask a question: which of the political forces is willing to give up several dozen seats in Parliament? Even if there is a certain prize from the Conservative Party. Nigel Faraj, as the initiator of Brexit, can also count on a certain number of votes, between 15-20%, and although it is less than that of the Labour and Conservatives, it is still a rather serious influence on the future policy of Great Britain. Moreover, the more votes Faraj's party members will gain, the more weight they will have in the Parliament and, accordingly, will be able to join a coalition later with the same Conservatives to support Brexit Boris Johnson. Thus, we believe that the mood of Nigel Faraj before the election may still change.
What is the result? The pound is growing and has reached the past local high, which the bulls need to overcome in order to be able to continue the growth of the British currency. Thus, much more will depend on technical factors. Not a single important macroeconomic report has been published today either in the United States or in the UK, and tomorrow a similar situation awaits us. Thus, there is no fundamental background; there is only the mood of traders and technical factors. Technique now speaks in favor of continued growth of the pound/dollar pair. The Ichimoku indicator formed a golden cross, and traders managed to overcome the resistance level of 1.2951. Bollinger Bands are expanding upward, which also speaks in favor of the resumption of the upward trend.
Trading recommendations:
GBP/USD completed the lateral movement. Thus, traders are now advised to consider buying the British pound with a target at the resistance level of 1,3001. However, we recommend opening long positions in small lots, since from a fundamental point of view there are still few reasons for the pair to grow. It is recommended to return to selling no earlier than when bears consolidate below the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B. lines
Explanation of the illustration:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen is the red line.
Kijun-sen is the blue line.
Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.
Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.
Chikou Span - green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD indicator:
Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.
Support / Resistance Classic Levels:
Red and gray dotted lines with price symbols.
Pivot Level:
Yellow solid line.
Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:
Gray dotted lines without price designations.
Possible price movement options:
Red and green arrows.
