Employment ADP data unexpectedly excited market participants and provoked a slight panic. This is not surprising, since employment grew by 67 thousand, while they predicted growth by as much as 140 thousand. Moreover, the previous data was revised from 125 thousand to 121 thousand. Thus, the situation on the labor market is somewhat different than what was expected earlier. But the worst thing is that all this happens two days before the publication of the report of the United States Department of Labor and it is clear that the dollar immediately began to lose its position. Nevertheless, everything returned to normal pretty soon. The fact is that ADP data did not become a reason for revising forecasts on the contents of the report of the Ministry of Labor.
Today, the attention will be focused on two important events that can have a significant impact on the market. The first thing, investors will look at is the data for Europe, which publishes another estimate of GDP for the third quarter, which is likely to confirm the previous estimate, which showed that the pace of economic growth remained unchanged. However, given the fact that this will only be a confirmation that the market has already taken into account, data on retail sales are of much greater interest. Moreover, the growth rate of these same retail sales should slow down from 3.1% to 1.8%. Thus, the single European currency will obviously be under pressure.
Retail Sales (Europe):
After that, all attention will be focused on the data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. In the light of yesterday's ADP data, they are clearly of considerable interest. Moreover, a significant increase in the number of applications is forecasted. In particular, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits may increase by 13 thousand. The number of repeated applications should increase by 57 thousand. Due to this, it is highly likely that we will see a mirror image of yesterday's picture. At first, the single European currency will not grow, but decline, and then it will return back.
Repeated Unemployment Insurance Claims (United States):
From a technical point of view, the resistance level is at the level of 1.1070, when consolidated below that, the direction opens in the direction of the level of 1.1000. The resistance level is located at 1.1100, and purchases should be considered only after breaking through this level.
