Overview:
USD/CHF is consolidating after hitting seven-and-a-half month low of 0.9080 on Thursday. The rate is undermined by broadly softer demand for safe-haven USD as risk tolerance improves. But USD/CHF downside is limited by worries over the U.S. fiscal cliff; position adjustments before weekend. The rally from Thursday's bear trap low at 0.9084 will falter beneath solid resistance at 0.9240. USD bears will look to defend Monday's lower high at 0.9195, and Thursday's seven-month low at 0.9084 will remain vulnerable while 0.9195 caps. The broader-term downtrend targets 0.9043 and the 0.9000 level, and the 2012 low at 0.8931 is also may be reached in the long term.
Preference:
Buy above 0.912 with targets 0.916 and 0.918 in extension.
Resistance Levels:
R1 - 0.9153 (Thursday's high)
R2 - 0.9186-0.9194 band (Tuesday's high-Monday's high)
R3 - 0.9247 (Dec. 14 high)
Alternative scenario:
Sell below 0.912. Below 0.912 look for further downside with 0.9105 and 0.9075 as targets.
Support Levels:
S1 - 0.9105
S2 - 0.9080 (Thursday's low)
S3 - 0.9039 (May 1 low)
Technical Comment:
The pair is on the upside and is challenging its resistance. Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD is bearish, 5- & 15-day moving averages are falling, stochastic stays suppressed at oversold.
