EUR/USD – Weekly.
Good day, dear traders!
First of all, I would like to start with a new long-term trading idea. As seen on the weekly chart, a very strong and long-term narrowing triangle has been formed. Its formation began in 2000. However, now the pair's quotes have come close to its lower border, so in the next few days or weeks, there may be a rebound from this line or consolidation under it. In the first option, traders can expect some growth in quotes in the direction of the upper line of the triangle. In the second option - a new long-term fall in the direction of absolute lows for the euro around the level of 0.8229.
EUR/USD – 1H.
As seen on the hourly chart, we have a downward trend corridor that remains working. The euro/dollar pair did not even attempt to close over this corridor over the last trading day. Thus, the mood of traders remains "bearish", and the trading signal for purchases has not been received. I still expect the quotes to close above the corridor, which will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the European currency and some growth in the direction of the corrective levels of 38.2% (1.0930) and 50.0% (1.0962). Potentially, traders can earn about 100 points of profit on this trading idea. However, closing the pair's exchange rate below the Fibo level of 0.0% (1.0828) will work in favor of the US dollar and continue falling towards new lows.
News overview:
The US and EU news calendar are empty for February 17.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:
The new trading idea is to buy the euro with the targets of 1.0930 and 1.0962. Unlike previous risky trading ideas, I suggest waiting for the closing over the trend range this time, then buy the euro. This condition may take from one to several days to complete.
