EUR/USD – 1H.
Good day, dear traders!
The hourly chart maintains a downward trend corridor, which continues to hold the quotes of the euro/dollar pair within itself. Yesterday, traders made several attempts to secure the upper line of the corridor, but all of them failed. Thus, the corridor keeps the "bearish" mood of traders. I am still waiting for the euro/dollar exchange rate to go beyond the corridor, which will signal the growth of the European currency. The fall of the euro cannot continue forever, but as long as the pair's quotes are inside the corridor, you should not rush to buy.
EUR/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the fall also continues. But yesterday, two bullish divergences were formed at once for the CCI and MACD indicators. Thus, on the 4-hour chart, we have two signals for the possible growth of the pair. I do not give any target levels yet, as you need to wait for one or more confirmations of a change in the mood of traders to "bullish" before buying a pair. However, I state the fact that certain prerequisites for changing the trend have appeared.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
Perhaps the most significant prerequisite for changing the trend is the approximation of the pair's quotes to the lower line of the tapering triangle on the weekly chart. The probability of rebounding from this line is very high and remains up to about 30-40 points. The approximate point of contact of the pair with the line is the level of 1.0767. The pair's rebound from this level will work in favor of the euro currency and the beginning of growth in the direction of the upper line of the triangle. However, we need the rebound itself in order to work out this signal on the lower charts.
News overview:
Publication of the minutes of the Fed meeting (19:00 UTC+00)
There were a few economic reports and news yesterday. However, traders do not always need an information background to continue selling the euro currency. The pair's quotes are selected for important support levels, around which a reversal of the pair in favor of the euro may follow. Today, I draw your attention to the evening publication of the Fed's minutes, which may affect the mood of traders.
The COT report (Commitments of traders):
For the week of February 11, short positions of large speculators increased by only 2,146 contracts, but long positions increased by 20,622. This means that the largest market players are gradually beginning to prepare for a reversal. The total number of commercial long positions already outweighs short positions. Although the total number (total) is still dominated by sales. However, the conclusion of the latest COT report is obvious: the largest players who do not use the foreign exchange market for speculative profit are increasing their purchases. Speculators, hedge funds and traders continue to short the pair. The fall of the euro currency will slow down.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:
The trading idea is still to buy the euro. However, to do this, you need to get signals from at least two charts. On each of the three charts, signals are brewing for a reversal in favor of the euro. After receiving these signals, it will be possible to determine the goals for purchases of the euro.
