FX.co ★ AUD/USD Long-Term Wave Analysis

AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Yesterday we gave AUD/USD forecast for short term, and today we want to cover longer term timeframe for swing traders. If we look at the day chart 1, we can see that corrective wave D is over and that sub-waves (A) and (B) (coloured red) of the final wave E is finished. During the Monday's trading session this major pair broke support level at 1.4100 that confirmed our bearish scenario for this wave analysis, and we expect to see strong downward movement in the first weeks of 2013. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave E should retrace 61.8% of the wave C, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave C with take profit at 0.9835 (61.8% of wave C). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation at 1.0624 level as stop loss.

Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.0280 (S2) 1.0319 (S1) 1.0338 (PP) 1.0377 (R1) 1.0396 (R2) 1.0435 (R3) 1.0454

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why short positions at level 1.0350 with stop loss 1.0624 and take profit at 0.9835 are recommended.