GBP/USD – 1H.
Hello, traders! According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continues to grow. A new upward trend line was built, as well as a new grid of Fibonacci levels. Thus, now in the short term, the mood of traders is defined as "bullish". The pair's quotes performed a consolidation above the Fibo level of 50.0% (1.2871), which allows traders to expect continued growth in the direction of the corrective level of 61.8% (1.2906). Closing the pair's rate below the Fibo level of 50.0% will work in favor of the US dollar and start falling in the direction of the trend line.
GBP/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair also continues to grow, which required certain adjustments in the graphic picture. Thus, now traders have a new downward trend channel, which keeps the "bearish" mood of traders (disagreements with the hourly chart). The rebound of quotes from the upper line of this channel will work in favor of the US dollar and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the lower line - near the level of 1.2641. On March 5, there are no new divergences in any indicator. Closing the pound/dollar quotes over the descending channel will change the mood of traders to "bullish" in the long term.
GBP/USD – Daily.
According to the daily chart, the graphic picture remains the most interesting and confusing. First, the downward trend corridor was transformed (marked with bold blue lines), which changed the angle of inclination. Secondly, a descending trend line is constructed, which together with the lower line of the corridor forms a "tapering triangle". Third, a small downward trend corridor remains in effect (marked with thin blue lines). And all three graphical constructions keep the pair's quotes inside themselves. Thus, near the Fibo level of 38.2% (1.2920), a reversal in favor of the US currency can be performed with the resumption of the fall in the direction of the corrective level of 50.0% (1.2736). Rebound from any line of any corridor or trend line will similarly work in favor of the beginning of the pair's fall.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Wednesday, March 4, the UK released the business activity index for the services sector and the composite PMI. The first fell to 53.2, the second - to 53.0, compared with January values. US data was stronger but the Briton did not pay attention to them and continued to grow.
The economic calendar for the US and the UK:
USA - change in the volume of production orders (15:00 UTC+00).
Great Britain - Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will deliver a speech (17:00 UTC+00).
On March 5, in addition to the only report in the US, Britain will host a speech by the current head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney. Already on March 15, he will leave his post, so his last speeches may be very important.
COT survey (Commitments of traders):
The latest report from February 25 shows that equality between major market participants remains. There are no significant changes. The total number of long and short positions remains approximately the same. Changes for the reporting week were minimal. Thus, the mood of major market players does not change. A small advantage remains on the side of bear traders but it is really minimal. Thus, I still tend to believe that traders should not expect strong exchange rate changes from the GBP/USD pair in the near future. Most likely, the auction will continue to be held in the style of "150 points up - 200 down - 250 up".
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders:
The main trading idea now is to wait for the rebound from the trend line and the upper line of the small corridor on the daily chart and the upper line of the corridor on the 4-hour chart. These rebounds will allow you to count on a slight fall in the pair and shorten the British pound for traders with the target of 1.2736.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, and companies that buy currency not for speculative profit, but for current operations or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
