On Monday, the major trading floors in Europe, Australia, New Zealand, and Hong Kong are closed for Easter Monday. In the US, the market will resume trade.
Meanwhile, the trading sentiment in the global stock market remains cautious as the stocks continue to be quite volatile. Besides, the stock market is recovering albeit rather weakly. While investors are estimating the damage from the coronavirus to the global economy and to the economies of individual countries, such as the United States and the euro area, the US dollar is declining.
Versus the commodity currencies such as the ruble, the Australian dollar, the kiwi, the Canadian dollar, and the Norwegian Krone, the greenback has significantly dropped. The American currency is giving in due to the increased demand for commodity assets as economic activity in China is recovering.
Investors realize that someday the impact of the coronavirus will decrease. Many analysts believe that the pandemic will be subdued in April. Therefore, demand for risky assets is expected to spike up in May, which will eventually lead to the weakening of the greenback.
Today, the economic calendar lacks any important news. For this reason, the market may be more buoyant during the New-York session. Overall, the American currency will resume its downward movement after some correction in the commodity currencies.
As for the ruble's trajectory, it is expected to strengthen. In May, the dollar/ruble pair will fall to the level of 65 rubles per dollar as demand for risky assets will rise amid the recovery of the Chinese economy. What is more, Eurozone and the US economies will gain ground after the pandemic. Finally, prices for crude oil and high demand for OFZ of the Russian Ministry of Finance will also weigh on the pair.
Today's outlook:
The forecast for the AUD/USD pair remains unchanged. The pair is trading above the 0.6340 level. It is recommended to open long deals on the pair taking into account its possible growth to 0.6460.
The outlook for the USD/CAD pair also remains in force. The USD/CAD pair is still consolidating above the 1.3935 level. In case of the recovery of oil prices, the pair will sink to 1.3800.
