GBP/USD – 1H.
Hello, traders! According to the hourly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed a reversal yesterday in favor of the US dollar and anchored under the upward trend corridor. Thus, as with the euro/dollar pair, the mood of traders changed to "bearish". The movements of both pairs were almost identical yesterday. The Briton also rose during the day, after which it resumed falling. There is not much to highlight from the news concerning the UK. Traders continue to pay no attention to news or economic reports. Data on the COVID-2019 virus epidemic also does not differ too much between countries of the world. In the UK, the number of cases is already almost 100,000, and the number of deaths is almost 13,000. Thus, the UK, along with France, Spain and Italy, has the highest death rate from the pandemic in the world, more than 10%. In America, the number of cases is already 640,000, the number of deaths is 31,000, but the death rate is less than 5%.
GBP/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the pound/dollar pair performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and secured under the corrective level of 61.8% (1.2516). Thus, the chances of continuing the fall of quotes have grown yesterday. The goal is a corrective level of 50.0% (1.2303). No indicator has any pending divergences on April 16. Closing the pair's exchange rate above the Fibo level of 61.8% will work again in favor of the British currency and resume the growth in the direction of the corrective level of 76.4% (1.2777).
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes secured above the corrective level of 50.0% (1.2463). As a result, the growth can still be continued towards the next Fibo level of 61.8% (1.2711). At the same time, on the hourly and 4-hour charts, there was a change of mood to "bearish", which is possible on the daily chart.
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed a false break of the lower trend line. Thus, before the pair's quotes are fixed under this line, there is a high probability of growth in the direction of the two upper trend lines, but in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
There was no news or reports in the UK on Wednesday. And the American reports had no effect on the pair's movement.
The economic calendar for the US and the UK:
USA - the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits (14:30 GMT).
On April 16, news from the UK is not expected again. The background information will be reduced to an important report from the US on initial applications for unemployment benefits. Another "gigantic" value of the report may lead to a fall in the US dollar.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The pound continues to lose its attractiveness in the eyes of major market players. The new COT report, which will be released tomorrow, may show a further reduction in the total number of contracts. The overall advantage remains on the long side, but it is absolutely minimal: 160,000-154,000. During this week, the price of the British pound began to fall, so major players could continue to get rid of long contracts.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations to traders:
I believe that today we should consider selling the British dollar with a target of 1.2303 since the closing was performed under the corrective level of 61.8% on the 4-hour chart. I recommend buying the British currency with a target of 1.2777 if the pair makes a consolidation above the level of 1.2516.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
