EUR/USD – 1H.
Hello, traders! On April 21, the euro/dollar pair fall to the lower line of the sideways trend corridor, from which it was rebounded with a reversal in favor of the European currency and the beginning of growth in the direction of the upper line of the corridor. Thus, the mood of traders at this time remains neutral. The pair's quotes are limited to the levels of 1.0827 and 1.0892. Until traders are able to move the rate out of this corridor, I do not expect a resumption of the trend movement. In the world markets, meanwhile, a new panic began. At first, oil quotes (May supply contracts) fell in price to - $ 37, which has never happened before. Of course, this does not mean that for every barrel of oil that the buyer wanted to buy, he was paid an additional $ 37. This means that no one needed the May oil supply contracts and it was the contracts that were cheaper, not the oil itself. However, black gold continues to beat all the anti-record values. WTI has already fallen to $ 12, Brent - fell to $ 16, but now it has recovered to $ 20, the Russian Urals - fell below $ 10. In the near future, OPEC+ will hold a new emergency meeting to discuss the possibility of further reducing oil production.
EUR/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes returned to the Fibo level of 23.6% (1.0840). The new downward trend line defines the mood of traders in the long term as "bearish". But for now, the currency market is relatively quiet. At least the euro/dollar pair. The pound is more active. Based on this, the further fall of the quotes in the direction of the corrective level of 0.0% (1.0638) is still questionable since the pair does not manage to close under the Fibo level of 23.6%. At the same time, there is also no rebound from this level, which would allow traders to buy euros. Fixing the pair's rate above the downward trend line will work in favor of the EU currency and change the current mood of traders to "bullish".
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the euro/dollar pair fall to the Fibo level of 23.6% (1.0840) and continues to remain near it. I also built a new "triangle" that perfectly displays the decline in trader's activity in recent weeks.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the euro/dollar pair continues to trade near the bottom line of the "narrowing triangle". The rebound of quotes from this line still allows us to expect an increase in quotes in the long term in the direction of the level of 1.1600 (the upper line of the "triangle"). Closing the pair under the "triangle" will work in favor of the US currency and, possibly, a new long fall.
Overview of fundamentals:
On April 21, there was not a single important report or news in the European Union or in America. Thus, weak movements of the euro/dollar pair and the absence of a trend correspond to the information background.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
On April 22, the calendars of economic events in the European Union and the United States are empty again. Traders today will again have nothing to pay attention to.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
A new COT report was released on Friday. It showed no major changes in the mood of hedgers and speculators. Major market players were again engaged in getting rid of long and short contracts. The first category lost 12,399 contracts during the week, while the second category lost 8,233. The increase was recorded only for long-term contracts of the "Non-commercial" group, i.e. speculators. However, these same speculators have been actively getting rid of short contracts in recent months, not believing that the dollar will become more expensive again. The overall advantage among major players remains on the side of short positions. Over the past week, the number of short-term contracts has decreased in absolute terms, so the probability of a fall in the euro currency is reduced.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations to traders:
At this time, I recommend waiting for consolidation under the level of 23.6% (1.0840) on the 4-hour chart, as well as under the side corridor on the hourly, and then sell the euro with the goal of 1.0638. I recommend buying euros, since the lower line of the side corridor(1.0827) was rebounded, with the goal of the upper line of the corridor(1.0892).
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
