EUR/USD
Friday's release of US employment data did not provoke a strong market reaction, as it did on Wednesday with data from ADP. Unemployment rose from 4.4% to 14.7% in April, but it was below the forecasted 16.0%, in the non-agricultural sector there was a decrease of 20.5 million jobs, but this indicator was better than the forecast of 22.0 million, which was accepted by investors as good situational data. On the contrary, in Germany the data turned out to be worse than the forecast: the trade balance for March fell from 21.4 billion euros to 12.8 billion while expecting 19.0 billion euros. As a result, the euro traded in a moderate range of 60 points and closed the day with a symbolic increase of 6 points.
The price is still below the red balance indicator line on the daily chart, the price reached this line last Friday. The Marlin oscillator reached the boundary of the growth territory, a downward reversal of the signal line is possible from the zero line.
The upper shadow of the Friday extreme candle only touched the resistance of the indicator balance line on the four-hour chart, copying the pattern of the daily timeframe.
This is a condition for maintaining a declining trend. In any case, until the near future, there is no news that can overcome the Friday release from the Ministry of Labor. Today, we can expect news in the form of data on the volume of industrial production in Italy in March, the forecast for it is -20.0% after -1.2% in February. Industrial production of the entire euro area will be released on Wednesday, economists forecast -12.0%, a report on industrial production in the US will be released on Friday - a forecast of -11.3%. Although not by much, the situation in the US is better.
The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is slightly higher than the neutral line, while the market remains neutral. A full condition for the price to fall further is to overcome the Thursday low of 1.0767. The goal remains the same - 1.0595.
