The Reserve Bank of Australia held its regular meeting today, which was expected to be "passable". Nevertheless, the RBA's passivity in the current conditions plays into the hands of the "Aussie" - the AUD/USD pair continued to siege the 68th figure after some hesitations. At the moment, the "round" level of 0.6800 plays the role of a psychologically important resistance level, while from the technical point of view, the nearest resistance is slightly higher - at 0.6850 (the lower border of the Kumo cloud on the weekly chart). All indicators speak in favor of further price growth, and the fundamental background also contributes to the growth of bullish sentiment.
Before the June meeting of the RBA, the head of the regulator made several important statements, thereby indicating the position of the Central Bank regarding the future prospects of monetary policy. At today's meeting, the Central Bank members only confirmed the theses voiced earlier, having provided background support to the AUD/USD pair. However, the Australian currency reacted modestly enough to the results of the June meeting – by and large, the market played the most important messages of Philip Lowe yesterday.
Let me remind you that at the beginning of this week, the RBA manager ruled out both the further reduction in the interest rate and a decline in the rate in the negative area. Earlier, Lowe shared very optimistic forecasts, the essence of which was reduced to the fact that the "coronavirus attack" was weaker than earlier forecasts. In particular, unemployment has not grown as much as predicted by the RBA. In addition, the head of the Central Bank reported that in connection with the weakening of quarantine (Australia is gradually - until July - out of the lockdown), restoration processes began in the country. Thus, Philip Lowe made it clear that the country is likely to get out of the crisis in the second half of this year, only if the second wave of the pandemic does not follow. It is likely that at the beginning of next year, the Central Bank will consider raising the rate, although at the moment, Lowe does not comment on such long-term prospects.
As for the near prospects, there are no surprises here. According to many experts, the RBA will maintain its current monetary policy parameters until at least September, when most fiscal measures are expected to be phased out. Therefore, today, market participants ignored the RBA's standard phrase that "if necessary, the regulator is ready to increase bond purchases and take any measures to maintain debt markets as normal". The market also ignored another phrase of the accompanying statement, which says that the Central Bank will not raise the rate until there is "steady progress in moving towards the target levels of full employment and inflation."
This relationship is obvious, therefore, the market focused on another message. So, according to the members of the RBA, a coordinated and unprecedented easing of fiscal and monetary policies "helped the economy go through a problematic period." In other words, regulator members confirmed Philip Lowe's view that the country has left behind the most difficult phase of the coronavirus crisis and now that the country is gradually lifting quarantine restrictions, the Australian economy will show steady growth. As stated in the accompanying statement, "The Central Bank is fixing a steady improvement in the financial markets," and the current downturn "seems less deep than previously expected."
Amid such optimistic statements, traders ignored the "dovish" remarks - for example, the accommodative approach "will last as long as necessary." This wording was not previously used in the text of the accompanying statement, but, it mostly does not change the general essence – the market is not waiting for quick decisions on tightening monetary policy.
Thus, the passive position of the RBA has become a kind of "gift" to the Australian currency: the AUD still retains the potential for further growth at least to around the level of 0.6850.
From a technical point of view, the situation is as follows: on the daily chart, the price is on the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, and the Ichimoku indicator formed a bullish signal "Parade of Lines". This suggests that the AUD/USD pair has the potential for its further recovery, unless concerns about US-China relations return to the market (in the context of the implementation of trade agreements). On the weekly chart, the pair consolidated above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator. Moreover, the price is above the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines in this time frame, which are located under the Kumo cloud, thus forming the Golden Cross signal, which signals an increased probability of a trend changing from down to up. The nearest resistance level is the already mentioned, that is, the level of 0.6850. This is the lower border of the Kumo cloud. If we talk about the short-term, then the pair is on the middle line of Bollinger Bands on the 30-minute chart. The closest target within the day is the level of 0.6810 (the top line of this indicator).
