4-hour timeframe
Technical details:
Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.
Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.
Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.
CCI: 104.8194
The EUR/USD currency pair continued to grow on the second trading day of the week and now we can say for sure that the reason for the growth of the European currency this week is the events in the United States. Recall that over the past week, mass protests, demonstrations, and rallies began in the United States after a police officer in the state of Minnesota strangled a black man during his arrest. The scene of the arrest was filmed on a nearby street camera, which clearly shows how a white police officer strangles a black man with his knee for seven minutes, who later died of asphyxia. After this incident, actions against racism and in support of black people began to take place all over the world. While in European countries, people express support through social networks and various ways of expressing their respect for all races on the planet Earth. In America, rallies and protests reached their climax this weekend and continue to this day in more than 40 cities of the country. This is not just about rallies. We are talking about pogroms, as crowds of Americans destroy everything in their path and do not pay attention to the police, who often support the protesters themselves. In this regard, many cities and states have already declared a curfew, which is also ignored by protesters. And this is another headache for Donald Trump, who seems to have already said goodbye to his dream of remaining US president for a second term (and for a third and fourth). The main irony of the situation is that the US president himself is hardly to blame for the rallies, he is hardly to blame for the "coronavirus" epidemic that has swept the country. However, the American population will identify these events with the figure of Donald Trump and blame him for what is happening. This is partly true. After all, the government is to blame for what is happening in the country. In the first three years of his presidential term, Donald Trump almost every day boasted of his services to the country, as well as the achievements of his government, not forgetting to throw mud at the Democrats and everyone who came under his hand. At that time, America was growing, GDP was growing, unemployment was falling, and the labor market was gaining strength. And Trump associated this progress with his name. The US leader will definitely remember 2020 forever, because absolutely everything that he put to himself was leveled, and the country was mired in rallies, protests and was struck by the "coronavirus". On the international stage, a new trade war with China is brewing, which threatens to turn into a "cold war" that will last for many years. If six months ago or a year ago, the American economy could afford such a luxury as a new trade standoff with Beijing, now, after the COVID-2019 epidemic, it can not afford such a thing. Thus, if Trump still imposes new sanctions and duties against China because of the pandemic and Hong Kong, it threatens to even more severe collapse of the American GDP, while the Chinese economy, according to experts, will still show a small growth in 2020. According to most political analysts and experts, Donald Trump will not take such a step.
Thus, the chances of re-election of Donald Trump are currently approaching zero. Of course, according to official data and polls, Joseph Biden is ahead of the current president by about 10%. However, we believe that the Americans will not forgive the odious leader of the United States for exactly where he led his "great country", as he has repeatedly called the United States. As a result, at this time, protests and rallies have even reached the White House. And if the protestants have already appeared near the presidential administration, then there are claims not only to the police, but also to the authorities of the United States. Police used tear gas and rubber bullets to disperse the rally near the White House, but this did not stop rallies and pogroms across the country. It is noted that in major cities, such as New York, crowds of people rob and smash stores. Now just remember that all these crowds of people come together during an epidemic. How many new cases of coronavirus will there be after all the protests and pogroms are over? And what will happen next in the country? A new quarantine that is almost guaranteed to bury the American economy? A new wave of pandemics that will kill 100,000 more people?
So far, Donald Trump is trying to stop rallies and lawlessness with his favorite weapon – threats. He said that the governors of all states should use any number of national guard soldiers to establish full control over what is happening on the streets of the United States. "If the city or state refuses to take the measures necessary to protect people, their homes and property, I will solve the problem by sending the military to them. I will mobilize all federal resources: both civilian and military," Trump said. However, current US law does not allow the president to personally use the armed forces inside the country. This requires congressional authorization. However, Trump immediately said that according to the law of 1807, which has never been used in the United States, he has the right to use the army to put down a riot. All the unrest inside the country, the US president called terror. A riot is brewing even in social networks. Last week, Trump clashed with the Twitter network, through which he loves to "communicate" with Americans. This week, Facebook employees are going to hold a strike against the decision of CEO Mark Zuckerberg, who does not want the network to react to controversial posts by Donald Trump. Employees believe that the Facebook platform should not lead to incitement and misinformation of the population, regardless of who is the author of the messages. And finally, Trump himself once again poured mud on those who can not show results and quell the unrest. In this case, we are talking about all the governors of US states. "You have to dominate or you will look like jerks. You should arrest and judge people," the leader of the nation said. Donald Trump called on the authorities and police "not to act too carefully when suppressing riots", and also said that "the whole world laughed at Minneapolis", where protesters burned several police stations.
The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of June 3 is 81 points. Thus, the value of the indicator is still characterized as "average". Today, we expect the pair to move between the levels of 1.1097 and 1.1259. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards signals a round of downward correction, which is expected for several days in a row.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.1108
S2 – 1.1047
S3 – 1.0986
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.1169
R2 – 1.1230
R3 – 1.1292
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair continues its strong upward movement. Thus, after overcoming the psychological level of 1.1000, long positions remain relevant with the goals of 1.1230 and 1.1259, which are recommended to hold until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. It is recommended to return to selling the pair not before the price is re-anchored below the moving average line with the first goals of 1.1047 and 1.0986.
