According to the main chart of the epidemic in Russia, which shows the number of active cases, that is, the number of people being treated, we can see a new high (240 thousand). This means that health workers in Russia are currently exceptionally busy. Given the fact that the number of active cases in Moscow has fallen by 25 percent, it is clear that Russia, except for Moscow, is currently in the most difficult situation. Therefore, lifting quarantine restrictions in those regions where the situation is challenging is totally insane. The decision to hold mass events throughout Russia in late June and early July (in particular, the July 1 vote) is very risky. This may trigger a new wave of infections.
Russia has been reporting an increase in the number of new cases by about 8,500 for many days. Therefore, it will be possible to talk about signs of a slowing epidemic in cases: a) if the number of new cases throughout Russia falls at least below 4,000 per day; b) if the number of active cases in Russia declines by at least 20%.
RUB: the ruble has hit a new high. However, this movement has no solid fundamental grounds. Therefore, the ruble is likely to start losing ground within a month or two. So, you should be ready for the formation of the bottom. The US dollar and the euro can be bought for rubles at current prices.
EUR/USD: buy in the area of 1.1200 amid a strong pullback.
This week, traders are awaiting the news from the Fed to be published on Wednesday and the data on US weekly unemployment claims to be released on Thursday.
