GBP/USD – 1H.
Hello, traders! According to the hourly chart, the pound/dollar pair continues a very weak process of falling, as if doubting the correctness of such a movement. Yesterday's information background from the US could lead to a rise or fall in the dollar, however, in the end, it did not lead to anything. If the euro currency continues to fall, then the British have stopped in place, and what this is due to, it is difficult to even guess. I fear first of all for a new wave of panic in the foreign exchange market, as the COVID-2019 epidemic is again beginning to gain momentum around the world, and there is still no medicine or vaccine against this virus. Thus, a new wave of pandemics can lead to new and this time even irreversible consequences for the economy of each country. In Europe and the United Kingdom, there is no strong increase in cases, this trend applies only to America. Therefore, I believe that in the near future, the US currency may again begin to fall in price due to this factor.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pound/dollar pair rebounded from the corrective level of 38.2% (1.2530) and then continues the process of falling in the direction of the corrective level of 61.8% (1.2358). The rebound of quotes from this Fibo level will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the English currency and some growth in the direction of the corrective level of 38.2%. Fixing the pair's exchange rate under the Fibo level of 61.8% will work in favor of continuing the fall of quotes in the direction of the next corrective level of 76.4% (1.2250).
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes performed a new reversal in favor of the US currency and anchored under the Fibo level of 50.0% (1.2462). Thus, the process of falling can be continued in the direction of the corrective level of 38.2% (1.2215).
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed a false breakdown of the lower trend line and rebound from it. Thus, until the pair's quotes are fixed under this line, there is a high probability of growth in the direction of two downward trend lines.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Thursday, the UK again did not have any economic reports. In the US, several fairly important reports were released, but none of them could make traders trade more actively.
News calendar for the US and UK:
US - main index of personal consumption expenditures (12:30 GMT).
US - change in the level of expenditure and income of the population (12:30 GMT).
On June 26, there will again be no important reports in the UK, and only a few minor reports will be released in the US, which is unlikely to attract the attention of traders.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report showed the second consecutive strong reduction in short contracts among the "Non-commercial" group - by 7780 units. This same group of large traders also got rid of long contracts. Thus, among speculators, the Briton did not arouse any interest in the reporting week. Also, the "Commercial" group got rid of short and long contracts. And in total (the "Total" group), about 32 thousand contracts were also lost. A week earlier, let me remind you, it was -25 thousand. Thus, the major market players now do not buy the pound and do not sell it. Most likely, assets are being transferred to other more interesting currencies. However, this is not the euro, which also shows a reduction in the reporting week. The deadline for the latest report is June 16. After this date, the pair fell into a zone of turbulence and changed direction almost every day.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations to traders:
I recommend selling the pound today with the goals of 1.2358 and 1.2250, as the rebound from the level of 1.2530 was performed on the 4-hour chart. At the same time, I recommend being careful with sales, as the hourly chart continues to indicate possible growth. I recommend opening new purchases of the pair after closing above the level of 1.2444 with a target of 1.2530.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
