To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:
A good signal formed to sell the British pound yesterday morning after a breakout and consolidation below the support of 1.2526, however, unfortunately, continuing the downward movement did not work, which led to removing the stop and a market reversal. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how the bears clung to the support of 1.2526, but then the bulls returned to the market, and after a second return to this range, they formed a good buy signal, which caused the pound to sharply grow to the resistance area of 1.2585. By the end of the day, it was also possible to observe a consolidation above this level. The technical picture has slightly changed at the moment. Bulls will fight for the resistance of 1.2625, consolidating on it will be a signal to open long positions, while expecting growth to reach a high of 1.2676 and to exit to a larger area of 1.2754, where I recommend taking profits. In case of a downward correction in the morning, you can view purchases when forming a false breakout in the support area of 1.2572, where the moving averages also pass. I advise opening long positions immediately on a rebound from the low of 1.2526, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day. You also need to remember that the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for June 30 recorded another increase in short and long positions, which indicates a confrontation between buyers and sellers. The latter needs to be more active in order to return the wounds to the other side. The COT report indicates that short non-commercial positions increased from the level of 48,170 to the level of 55,414 during the week. Long non-commercial positions rose from the level of 29,654 to the level of 34,424. As a result, the non-commercial net position increased its negative value to -20,990, against -18,516.
To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:
News that the UK government is allocating an additional 38 billion to help companies and businesses provide support to the British pound, which disrupted all the plans of sellers, so expect a downward correction. At the moment, an important task of the bears is to protect the resistance of 1.2625, and forming a false breakout on it will be a signal to open short positions. Given that we are acting against the trend, it is best to sell after updating the larger level of 1.2676, as well as under the condition of a false breakout. Or open short positions immediately on a rebound from the resistance of 1.2754, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day. An equally important goal of the bears is to return support to 1.2572, where the moving averages also pass. Such a scenario will bring down the bullish momentum and cause the pound to fall to the area of 1.2526, where I recommend taking profits.
Indicator signals:
Moving averages
Trading is conducted above the 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates that the pound will continue to grow in the short term.
Note: the period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
Bollinger Bands
A break in the upper limit of the indicator around 1.2640 will lead to a larger increase in the pound. If the pair declines, the lower border of the indicator in the 1.2530 area will provide support.
Description of indicators
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
