Overview:
USD/CHF is trading in higher range. The rate is supported by improved USD sentiment; contagion from weak EUR and GBP on CHF; CHF-funded carry trades amid positive investor risk appetite. But USD/CHF gains tempered by CHF demand on retreating EUR/CHF cross. Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastic are bullish, although latter is at overbought; five- and 15-day moving averages are advancing. Consolidation from Friday's three-month high at 0.9389 risks further USD weakness towards 0.9225. However, corrective downside risk is limited, and keeping support at 0.9265 intact would prompt a strong rally back to 0.9365 and Friday's 0.9389 high. Uptrend targets at 0.9465 and the previous lower reaction high at 0.9513 would then be opened. Only movement below 0.9365 would concern USD bulls.
Preference:
Sell below 0.9365 with targets at 0.929 amid 0.926 in extension.
Support levels:
S1 - 0.9303-0.9295 band (Friday's low-Thursday's low)
S2 - 0.926
S3- 0.9208 (Tuesday's low)
Alternative scenario:
Buy above 0.9365. Above 0.9365 look for further upside with 0.939 and 0.941 as targets.
Resistance levels:
R1 - 0.9389 (Friday's high)
R2 - 0.941
R3 - 0.9465 (200-day moving average)
Technical comment:
The RSI lacks upward momentum: a consolidation of the last week upmove is expected.
