EUR/USD
The euro has so far paused with a downward turn, spending the entire day in the target range of 1.1560-1.1620. Consolidating the price above the upper limit of the range will provoke further growth to 1.1735 (August 28, 2018 high), but with a 60% probability, we expect a price reversal to 1.1420 and further into a medium-term decline. The Marlin divergence is slowly being created.
The price consolidates under the target level of 1.1620 on the four-hour chart, which creates an increased probability of its breakout. However, the Marlin oscillator turns down, showing a weakening trend. Yesterday's trading volumes were noticeably lower than Wednesday's.
Despite the reduced probability of a price reversal from current levels (from 70% to 60%), we are waiting for this main scenario to be implemented. Consolidating the price at 1.1560 will be the first signal of its development.
