To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:
The sharp rise in gold led to rush purchases of the European currency today in the Asian session. Last Friday, traders were pleased with fairly good data on manufacturing activity and reports on the service sector of the eurozone and the United States, which kept euro buyers optimistic. If you look at the 5-minute chart and remember my Friday forecast, you will see how a false breakout forming at 1.1591 became a great entry point into long positions, which brought more than 50 points of profit by the end of the day. At the moment, with purchases at highs, you need to be extremely careful, since we do not know what the Asian growth will result in in the future. To open long positions, it is best to wait for a downward correction to the area of intermediate support of 1.1682 and the release of data from the German IFO Institute. Good indicators on the confidence and optimism indicator will return demand for the euro, and forming a false breakout in the area of 1.1682 will be an additional signal to open long positions. If there is no activity at this level, I advise you to postpone purchases until the test of the low of 1.1640 immediately on the rebound, counting on a correction of 30-35 points within the day. An equally important task for the bulls is to break through and consolidate above the resistance of 1.1718, which will lead to a new wave of euro growth in the area of the high of 1.1750 and 1.1802, where I recommend taking profits.
To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:
For the time being, sellers have to wait for the large bull market to stop and reversal signals to form for the trend to end. Selling at current highs against the trend is not a good idea. Forming a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1718 after an unsuccessful attempt by the bulls to gain a foothold above this level closer to the middle of the day will signal the opening of short positions. The main goal of the bears is to return EUR/USD to the support level of 1.1682, consolidating under it will be an additional sell signal, which will push the pair to the 1.1640 area, where I recommend taking profits. If sellers do not become active in the 1.1718 area, and the data on Germany indicates increased optimism and expectations, then it is best to consider selling the euro when reaching new local highs in the area of 1.1750, or sell immediately for a rebound from the resistance of 1.1802 based on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.
Moving averages
Trading above 30 and 50 moving averages indicates the likelihood of a further bull market.
Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.
Bollinger Bands
In the event of a decline, support will be provided by the average border of the indicator at 1.1640. You can buy the euro immediately on a rebound from the lower border in the area of 1.1580.
Description of indicators
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- The MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages)is a fast EMA period of 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9U
- Bollinger Bands. 20y period
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
