To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:
In my morning forecast, I recommended paying attention to the level of 1.1777 and opening short positions from it when forming a false breakout, which happened. Let's take a closer look at the entry point. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how the bulls tried to regain the resistance of 1.1777 after the release of data on manufacturing activity in the Eurozone. However, nothing good came of it, which led to the formation of a signal to sell the euro. Now the market is on the side of bears, and it seems that buyers will need to protect the level of 1.1704, which the pair is currently aiming for. The formation of a false breakout on it will be the first signal to open long positions and stop the downward correction. If there is no activity at this level, I recommend to postpone purchases until the test of the minimum of 1.1648 in the expectation of a rebound of 25-30 points within the day. An equally important task for euro buyers is to return to the range of 1.1777, since it depends on whether the growth of EUR/USD will continue in the short term or not. I recommend fixing the profit in the area of 1.1840.
To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:
Bears coped with the morning task perfectly and protected the resistance of 1.1777, forming a good signal from it to enter the market. The next target of sellers is the support of 1.1704, which the pair is currently aiming for. A further area will be the minimum of 1.1648, where I recommend fixing the profit. However, it will be possible to get to this level only with very good indicators for activity in the US. If the pair shows growth in the second half of the day, you can still open short positions if a false breakout is formed in the resistance area of 1.1777 or sell EUR/USD immediately on a rebound from the level of 1.1840, since in my opinion bears will try to form the upper border of a new downstream channel. In the absence of activity in this range, it is best to sell the euro only after the test of last week's maximum in the area of 1.1906, counting on a correction of 25-30 points within the day.
Signals of indicators:
Moving averages
Trading is conducted below the 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates that the downward correction in the pair will continue.
Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
Bollinger Bands
A break in the lower border of the indicator around 1.1740 will lead to a larger fall in the euro. Growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator in the area of 1.1830.
Description of indicators
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
