Despite the inadequacy of the recent data on the UK labor market, as well as the dollar still being oversold, speculative interest in the market still persists. The pound began to grow again following the release of unemployment data, although statistics indicated a completely different direction of movement. Apparently, this is how speculators prepared for the data on producer prices in the United States, playing so to speak from the opposite. The forecasts for producer prices were quite good.
It was expected that producer prices will rise by 0.3% over the month, and the rate of their decline will slow down from -0.8% to -0.7% in annual terms. In fact, it turned out that prices increased by 0.6%. If you look at the annual data, the rate of decline has slowed down from -0.8% to -0.4%. And this turned out to be enough for the dollar to instantly win back all its losses, and could even strengthen by a little. Whatever one may say, but producer prices are a leading indicator for inflation. So there can be no talk of any reduction in inflation. Rather, it is just right to talk about its stronger growth.
Producer Price Index (United States):
And although the main event of the day is US inflation, you still can not ignore the data on GDP and industrial production in the UK. Moreover, they turned out to be slightly better than forecasts. Thus, a preliminary estimate of GDP for the second quarter showed an acceleration in the pace of economic decline from -1.7% to -21.7%. And it doesn't matter that the scale of the decline is simply catastrophic. The economy was expected to lose about 23.0%. So the data is a little better. The industry is still more optimistic, as the rate of its decline was supposed to slow down from -20.0% to -14.0%, but it turned out that they slowed down to -12.5%. In other words, despite the horrific numbers, the UK statistics were slightly better than expected.
GDP growth rate (UK):
It is clear that all this caused the pound to strengthen. After all, the data came out better than expected. However, most likely, we will see a repetition of yesterday's picture, and the dollar will confidently strengthen after the US session opens. Moreover, there is a high probability that the dollar's appreciation will be much more extensive than yesterday. Investors expect inflation in the United States to accelerate from 0.6% to 0.7%, which in itself is an extremely positive factor. However, yesterday's data on producer prices indicate that inflation may rise even more. And in this case, the dollar's appreciation will be more pronounced.
Inflation (United States):
The GBPUSD pair has been following the 1.3000/1.3190 side band for the second week, consistently reaching the boundaries. The current dynamics indicate that the inertial upward movement that took place on July 1 is considered completed. Forming a flat is a temporary phenomenon in the market, and as soon as the borders fall, we will see the structure of the main course. Regarding volatility, speculation has decreased with the arrival of a sideways movement, but they still take place in the market, and the daily dynamics is high.
Looking at the trading chart in general terms, the daily period, you can see the natural basis that comes from the beginning of 2020, where the 1.3000/1.3250 area played the role of trading forces interacting on the market.
We can assume that as long as the 1.3000/1.3190 border is not broken, the quotes will continue the process of successive workouts, according to the rebound principle. The main tactic in the market is the method of breaking the established boundaries, and if you refer to the oversold dollar, then consolidating the price below 1.3000 can lead to a change in the sideways movement to a downward movement towards the values of 1.2900-1.2885.
From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments at minute and hour intervals signal sales. Daily intervals, as before, are focused on the main inertia of the price, signaling a purchase.
