Many of the world's oil capitals are going through tough situations, and this summer could be a glimpse of their future.
In all honesty, OPEC has revived oil after dropping historically in the first quarter, but prices around $ 40 are still too low for most countries as they struggle with weak economies, unstable governments, anxious populations and devastating effects of climate change. In addition, while the world tries to move to cleaner energy, with which oil prices are kept low, the governance of oil-rich countries is seriously threatened.
"The shaky OPEC six - Algeria, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria, Venezuela - are facing very unstable political and economic prospects," said Helima Croft, managing director and global head of commodity strategy in RBC Capital Markets LLC.
Compared to last year, OPEC's revenues fell by about 50%. As a result, the long-standing financial problems of OPEC members come to the fore:
Angola is seeking to increase the $ 3.7 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund by $ 800 million.
Nigeria has devalued its currency as a shortage of foreign exchange hits local businesses.
Iran has suffered a double shock: US sanctions and the virus, and neighboring Iraq and Iran have turned to the IMF.
Even Saudi Arabia is not insured, which adopted a series of austerity measures last quarter.
Thus, the prospects for oil and gas areas have changed dramatically compared to a decade ago.
In the past, the price of oil was around $ 100 a barrel, and consumers were worried about running out of supplies. OPEC is now increasingly having to reckon with declining demand as consumption begins to decline as the popularity of wind and solar energy rises.
Nevertheless, for now, oil is likely to remain the main source of energy for years to come. Peak demand is not expected, and there are forecasts that such will be unlikely even in the next couple of decades. To displace oil, billions of dollars are needed in vehicle electrification and renewable energy.
Some exporters are using the downturn to diversify their economies. Saudi Arabia is pursuing reforms as part of its Vision 2030 program, which aims to develop other sectors such as tourism and technology.
Saudi is also happy that low oil prices will stay a little longer, knowing full well that a new rally will only revive competitors such as the US shale industry, which has been pressing the kingdom heavily with the flow of oil over the past decade and could finally crush it.
However, a slowdown in shale oil production could only give cartel members a short respite, according to Ed Morse, global head of commodities research at Citigroup Inc.
"This delay gives some of them the opportunity to rebalance their economies," Morse said. "But for some of them, it's hopeless to think about rebalancing, since this is a postponement, but with a high probability of a collapse in oil and gas," he added.
