Today, on August 19, the EU leaders are due to discuss the situation in Belarus, including mass protests after the election held on August 9 and police brutality during the crackdown on August 9-12.
The protests began after August 9. People took to the streets after they got the preliminary results of the presidential election. According to the official data, 80% of votes were given to Lukashenko.
People were extremely outraged, because the entire course of the campaign proved the opposite. Thus, at the polling stations, there were huge queues of supporters of alternative candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. Most likely, Tikhanovskaya would have won in the first round in case of the honest vote count. People who came out to celebrate the opponent's victory were severely detained. Several days later, they were released. All detainees told about cruel beatings, inhumane conditions of detention (one person died of a heart attack due to a lack of air), gas tortures (smoke bombs were thrown into the cell and the doors were locked), women were humiliated, threatened with rape, etc. In the Internet, there are a lot of videos proving these facts.
This cruelty, provoked anger instead of fear. Thousands of people took to the streets in Minsk, and in other cities. Lukashenko realized that he had made a mistake and ordered the security forces to leave the streets on August 13. However, the protests continued quite peacefully. Protesters even collected rubbish that they threw.
The European Parliament refused to accept the results of the voting and it declared Lukashenko persona non grata in the EU.
Dual power.
Yesterday, Minsk announced the creation of a Coordinating Council under newly elected President Svitlana Tikhonovskaya in order to organize new elections and the transition of power from Lukashenko. At the moment, Tikhanovskaya is in Lithuania.
Lukashenko is severely criticizing the Coordinating Council. However, it was he who had developed the program. Thus, he accused the Coordinating Council of its intention to break ties with Russia, ban the Russian language, introduce forced belorusization and a full border with Russia. However, the Council refuted all this.
During the last two days, mass strikes occurred. People were demanding the resignation of Lukashenko and new elections.
At the same time, there was some pullback yesterday as some of the strikers retreated under strong pressure from the administration. A support fund has been created to help the strikers with more than $1 million. All the money was given to people.
Dual power.
At the moment, there are two opponents struggling for the power: Lukashenko and the security forces and the Coordinating Council with Tikhonovskaya.
As it usually happens in such situations, any of two parties has an opportunity to change everything.
For example, Lukashenko may order to arrest the Coordinating Council or a part of it and try to resume dispersing the protests. In fact, all the rallies in Minsk and other cities are considered to be illegal under the legislation of Belarus.
At the same time, the Coordinating Council may call on thousands of protesters to block government buildings in Minsk and prisons where hundreds of political prisoners are kept, including presidential candidates Babariko and his son as well as Sergei Tihanovsky (Tihanovskaya's husband) and dozens of their closest comrades. It is clear that if the buildings are blocked, Lukashenko and the security forces will have nothing to do but to disperse the protest or go to negotiations.
Nevertheless, the situation is precarious.
