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FX.co ★ Politics. Belarus on August 20. Lukashenko counterattacks

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Forex Analysis:::2020-08-20T07:48:48

Politics. Belarus on August 20. Lukashenko counterattacks

The election held on August 9 in Belarus has sparked off a crisis that is still ongoing.

The vast majority of Belarusian citizens believe that the results of the election have been fabricated. The Central Election Commission of the Republic of Belarus announced the victory of Alexander Lukashenko with 80% of the vote. However, a substantial number of Belarusians are sure that the winner of the election is the opposition candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya who, according to the official results, received only 10% of the vote. Thus, the dispute is not about a few percent, but about fictitious results. In all large and small cities across Belarus, people gathered to show their support to Tikhanovskaya. Meanwhile, there were no pro-Lukashenko gatherings during the presidential race. On the election day, crowds flooded Minsk, the capital of the country, to give their votes for Tikhanovskaya. The opposition leader won at the embassies in the neighboring countries. Interestingly, there were only few polling stations where counting was fair and transparent. At such polling stations, either Tikhanovskaya won with up to 90% of the vote or Lukashenko, but with a minimum margin.

The Central Election Commission has not revealed the results of the voting at polling stations. Moreover, vote counting itself aroused suspicion. Thus, Tikhanovskaya allegedly received 65% of votes at 17% of polling stations. As it turned out, at the remaining 83% of the polling stations she got only 35% of votes. Belarus is not that big of a country. Therefore, such a huge gap is unreal. Interestingly, in one school there were two polling stations where both Lukashenko and Tikhanovskaya received 80% of the vote but at one of the stations.

Yesterday, EU leaders held an emergency summit to discuss the political crisis in Belarus. As a result, the EU refused to recognize the results and called for new, fair, and democratic presidential elections, demanding an end to the violence against peaceful protesters. Also, Europe called on Lukashenko to talk to representatives of civil society to resolve the crisis.

The opposition in Belarus has launched a Coordinating Council in order to negotiate with Lukashenko and organize a transfer of power, as well as a new election. In response, Lukashenko accused the Coordination Council of seizing power and refused to talk to the EU representatives. As a result, Angela Merkel had to announce the EU's position to Lukashenko through the mediation of Vladimir Putin.

Meanwhile, protests and strikes continue. A fund to support the strikers has been created. The EU also allocated assistance to Belarus in the amount of 53 million euros. Thus, 50 million euros will be given as a financial aid to hospitals in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic and 3 million euros - to support the civil society. In response, Lukashenko instructed the KGB to cut off all funding channels for protesters and strikers.

Anyway, protests do not stop. Yesterday, despite the rain, thousands of people gathered on the Independence Square in Minsk. Protests were held in many Belarusian cities as well.

At the same time, Lukashenko is tightening his grip on power. The riot police came to the streets again and tried to break the strike.

In addition, mass rallies in support of Lukashenko were held in several cities. Interestingly, a significant part of pro-Lukashenko protesters was forced to come. However, there were also his committed followers present.

Lukashenko denies the fact that the election results have been fabricated. Moreover, local TV channels show only his vision of the situation. However, despite previous years, only a minor paert of Belarussian citizens supports Lukashenko this time.

To sum up, the election was completely non-transparent which caused mass protests across the country.

The situation on August 20 is the following: the Coordinating Council under the elected President Tikhanovskaya, who has fled to neighbouring Lithuania and her husband in jail, is calling for negotiations and a new election, while Lukashenko is increasing the pressure on the protesters.

Last Sunday, the largest protest against Lukashenko in the history of Belarus took place in Minsk, up to 400 thousand people. A new rally is scheduled for 23 August.

Analyst InstaForex
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