We can say that Belarus is now facing the duality of power: Lukashenko is holding the power control handle, while streets remain in the hands of protesters.
Lukashenko has tried to disperse protesters for the last two days. Thus, on August 26, up to 30 people were detained across Belarus (14 in Minsk) compared to the 7,000 arrested in the period of August 9-13.
The Investigation Committee is now interrogating the main members of the Coordination Council, an alternative authority created to coordinate a peaceful and orderly transfer of power from incumbent president Alexander Lukashenko. Nobel Prize-winning writer Svetlana Alexievich as well as politician Pavel Latushko were summoned by investigators yesterday. Today, it is the turn of Maria Kolesnikova, a Belarusian musician and political activist. Another two members of the Coordination Council are now under arrest and will remain behind bars for ten days. That is how Lukashenko prefers to hold a dialogue.
Meanwhile, the European Union is preparing to impose sanctions against Alexander Lukashenko and his circle of associates. Europe does not recognize the results of the election. Poland declared itself the representative of independent Belarus. It will provide assistance to the people of Belarus. At the same time, Lukashenko announced that he asked Vladimir Putin for help. The Russian president promised to give a hand. Lukashenko is sure that protests are a part of the intervention plan of Poland and Lithuania. In the meantime, protests do not stop - a new big wave is expected this weekend. Why is Lukashenka doomed?
Firstly, Lukashenko rigged the election, declaring himself the winner. The majority of Belarusians do not believe the results. That is why Lukashenko rejects the idea of new elections. He knows for sure that he will lose. Secondly, violence against civilians on August 9-13 was unprecedented. Practically every Belarusian has a friend or an acquaintance who has suffered from torture and beatings.
Using force, Lukashenko can remain in power for a rather long time. However, he will not be able to govern the country well. Sabotage against Lukashenko will be permanent. As a result, he will be forced to step down sooner or later, but definitely in disgrace. His only way to save face (life, health, and property) is to negotiate with people. So far, protests have been peaceful. But if Lukashenko resorts to violence again, his presidency will end up even sooner.
What role could Russia play in Lukashenko's future?
We cannot exclude, but we can say for sure, that this may be another crime of Lukashenko against his people and the country - a crime against sovereignty. Moreover, by supporting Lukashenko, Putin risks his own power in Russia as, in such a case, there will likely be the aggravation of tensions with the West, as well as a backlash within the country.
