People in Russia, as well as in Belarus, are used to seeing revolution in films about the Russian Revolution of 1917 or news about the protests on Maidan square in Kiev: gun violence, deaths, and horror everywhere.
Therefore, many believe that the pointedly peaceful protests in Belarus in August 2020 - women in white, flowers, and balloons - will not work. How can peaceful people defeat riot police, or Lukashenko's special forces?
In fact, the protesters can win based on two factors: the number of the protesters and resilience. The number of the protesters needed is at least 50,000 people in Minsk and thousands in other cities. Currently, this number is several times more. Resilience: for three consecutive weeks, the protest movement has been large-scale over the weekend.
Thus, if protests remain strong for several months (six months maximum - in my opinion), the political regime will either fall or change drastically.
Belarus is a small united country where people know each other. The majority of bureaucrats and security officials will not be able to withstand such a strong moral pressure from the majority of people. Lukashenko's 80% is a complete lie. Everyone knows and understands this both in Belarus and Moscow, as well as in Brussels.
Most likely, under the prolonged pressure of the protesters, bureaucrats and security forces will start to desert from Lukashenko after some time, and his regime will fall apart.
The protests are doomed in two cases: a) the protesters will get tired, and people will go home and put up with Lukashenko (and he hopes for this); b) protest leaders will change of the rhetoric in favor of Lukashenko.
Currently, the protesters demand the following: a) Lukashenko's resignation; b) punishment of all those guilty of mass beatings and torture of civilians on August 9-13; c) freedom for political prisoners and new elections.
If the leaders of the protests refuse to demand Lukashenko's step down from the office, the protesters will lose their fight against the regime.
Today, on September 1, a general strike is scheduled in Belarus.
